NFL Round 2 Last Minute Preview

I was hoping to have my recap of last week’s games (specifically my Patriots) done by now, but alas, I have failed.

Soooo... I didn’t want to send you into this weekend without pumping out a quick preview and some picks. So let’s take a look at another awesome foursome of playoff games:

(Obviously if you make any bets based on my picks… you are dumb… and soon to be broke.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

I can’t believe how excited I am for all of this years’ playoff games. Parody in the NFL is at an all-time high. Going into last week there were only 2 of 12 playoff teams that I didn’t feel were championship material… they both advanced. Other than those two teams, one of which now looks very capable of winning it all, every other team in the playoffs, and a couple who didn’t even make the playoffs, I could easily see winning it all. And I’m not even just saying that to excuse my going 1-3 last weekend. Really, I’m not.

But, we’re not here to talk about the past.

(Real quick: I haven’t read “Juiced” and probably never will, but I believe everything I’ve heard from Jose Canseco. I will admit that this subject isn’t in my wheelhouse, but I just have some things to throw on the record here.

1. If PED’s weren’t against the rules in the 90’s, then why don’t these guys just own up and say they did them! If you’re in a career where your physical abilities dictate your professional success entirely, and because of advances in science that everyone around you is taking advantage of your natural skill set is not going to be enough to keep up with the Joneses, and there are no authorities telling you that you can’t and certainly no one testing or checking to make sure you aren’t… why WOULDN’T you try them out?! Wouldn’t that actually be something of a common sense decision? Ok I’m literally asking I guess. Something isn’t making sense to me here. The only real argument I’ve heard is that “it’s cheating” or “it’s not in the spirit of the game”. First of all, if it’s not against the rules, it’s not cheating. This is professional sports. This isn’t pickup ball with some friends. This is a billion dollar industry. And that is actually my response to the “it’s not in the spirit of the game” argument as well. Is that supposed to stop guys from doing something to get an edge, earn a few more millions, and do it all without getting in trouble for breaking the rules? If that’s really the best argument then I’m tempted to tell baseball fans that it’s time to grow up. Maybe I’m way off base here.

2. I believe Canseco. ABSOLUTELY I do. I’m the ultimate “innocent until proven guilty” guy. But, for Jose to say so much about so much with so much description of what happened in full believable detail, and for so many of the guys he talked about to have either admitted to or been named on a list of guys who have used PED’s— AND for McGuire to now come out and basically say it’s all true EXCEPT the part about Jose doing it with him—well I’m just having a hard time with that. I bought Jose’s story from the start and continue to.)

OK, onto the picks:

--------------------------------------------------------------------


Cardinals @ Saints
Saturday 4:30pm FOX

In the intro to my Round 1 Preview I talked about how there were 3 teams that I felt played RSF (Regular Season Football) and for various reasons, most of which can be summed up by the word “soft”, none of those 3 top teams would win the Super Bowl this year. The Saints were one of those teams. I love Drew Brees. I always thought San Diego should’ve just kept him and used the Philip Rivers pick on another position. I’ve got no real issues with Brees. He’s only played 2 playoff games and, although he’s 0-2, he played fairly well in both of them. This is the best team he’s ever had and it’s the best defensive team he’s had while in New Orleans by faaaaaaar. The Saints offense has been explosive the past couple years and especially this year with Brees at the helm. They went 13-0 before dropping their last 3 games of the season. On paper they’ve built quite a resume this season and if we were going just by highlight films, they would probably be the Super Bowl Champs already. However, I’m struggling to be impressed with their season on the whole.

They only racked up 3 wins against playoff teams, 2 of those at home. The most impressive was against a struggling New England team. The other two were in the first 4 weeks of the season against the Eagles, without McNabb, and a 24-10 win against the Jets at home in week 4 at the front end of a 7 game stretch that saw the Jets go 1-6. Outside of those wins they’ve beaten, from week 1: Detroit, Buffalo, Miami, Giants (at home), Atlanta (twice by 11 combined points), Carolina (30-20 at home, 1-1 against the Panthers this season), St. Louis (by 5), Tampa Bay (blew them out in week 11, lost in OT in week 16).

This Saints team has a soft defense, a finesse offense, and hasn’t played anyone since a struggling Patriots team in week 12, and nobody outside of that all season, for all intents and purposes.

It’s clear that I’m not sold on the Saints.

The Cardinals, however, have me hooked.

In my preview of the Packers-Cardinals game last week I wrote, “I could see either of these teams catching fire and cruising all the way to the Super Bowl. Easily. The Cardinals also have a defense that is capable of doing everything and really catching fire… And we already know how explosive the Cards offense can be when healthy and clicking.” Well, the Cardinals offense was clicking and they pulled out the win in a shootout against the Packers. I actually was impressed by the Cardinals defense that let up 45 to the Packers. The Packers have an excellent offense and the ‘Cards really didn’t match up well. They had pressure on Rodgers for a large portion of that game and they ended up getting the game winning sack/turnover/touchdown trifecta to close it out in OT. Basically, they showed me everything I was afraid they would when I picked the Packers. They showed me everything I needed to see to label them “Super Bowl material”.

I’m rolling with Kurt Warner, (who I will always maintain has had an overrated career, but is still an awesome player with a chance to live up to his overrated legacy the more times he keeps producing like this in the playoffs), and that stud-laden offense over Brees and his boys.

The Saints go into most games looking to shoot it out, but I think even if they get their wish today, be careful what you wish for.

Cardinals 31-24


Ravens @ Colts
Saturday 8:15pm CBS

The second of my threesome of RSF teams (Colts) face off against a true, textbook SSF (Second Season Football) team (Ravens). So it should be obvious who I’m picking here.

The Colts.

I know it doesn’t fit my usual playoff formula, but here’s what I’m hung up on: The Ravens ALWAYS sucker me into thinking they’ll beat the Colts. I consistently buy the theory that the Ravens D will bother Peyton more than the Colts D can stop the Ravens running game. I even factor in some turnovers, thinking that defense will confuse Manning a bit the way he always used to get flustered against the Pats. Well, it never pans out. Manning usually hangs a solid 20+ points on the Ravens. And THAT was the old Peyton.

I’ve said all year that this was a new version of Peyton. It started after winning the Super Bowl in ’06 and has grown since. Peyton has seemed to morph into a full blown assassin. The question is yet to be answered though, is this version of Peyton reality, or a hoax?

Only time will tell. These Colts live and die on the arm and vision of Peyton Manning as much as ever. I’m going with him, possibly against my better judgement, being over his postseason choking enough to get a win over this Ravens team.

This game could really go in absolutely any direction and I wouldn’t be shocked, easily more than any of the other three games this weekend. Blowout Colts, close game, blowout Ravens similar to last week against the Pats. But I think Peyton will get it done and also that the Colts D opportunistic D will make just enough plays against the Ravens offense to make life difficult for Joe Flacco.

Wait, haven’t I heard this theory somewhere before?? I hate myself.

Colts 27-17


Dallas @ Minnesota
Sunday 1pm FOX


Aaaaaand the 3rd team of my RSF threesome makes it’s postseason debut! Against my pre-playoff Super Bowl team from the NFC, no less! This is awesome. I’m so pumped for this game. It also happens to be the closest game of the weekend. The consensus throughout the sports world seems to be that this game is as close as it gets. I’m sticking with my ‘Boys and not hesitating on it.

These teams seem very similar at first glance. Both have talented defenses that rush the passer extremely well, both have very balanced running attacks with depth at the RB position, both have tons of weapons for the QB to throw to and, of course, both have very good QB’s.

So how are they different, you ask?

The Vikings are not what they’re supposed to be. By nature, the Vikings are a running team. They have an excellent run blocking offensive line. They signed the best LG in football, Steve Hutchinson, to play between Pro Bowlers LT Bryant “Mount” McKinnie and C Matt Birk. They followed that by drafting Adrian Peterson, allowing them to move starting RB Chester Taylor on to the 3rd down role. In both of Peterson’s first two seasons the Vikings finished in the top 5 in the NFL in rushing, while staying down at 32nd and 28th in pass attempts. They were designed to be the perfect power running team with a nice cast of deep threat, quick strike receivers that can make you pay a couple times a game when teams are loading up against the run. They paired that with a fierce, physical defense that was dominant against the run. They were simply lacking a QB who could manage the game and safely take advantage of those few deep opportunities each game.

Then they got their missing piece… Brett Favre.

In this, Peterson’s 3rd year in the league, a time you may expect a guy to have things figured out and be poised to hit full stride in the league, the Vikings came into the season with a lot of promise. Then a little thing I would like to call “The Favre Factor” struck. This year they leaped up to 12th in the league in pass attempts and dropped to 13th in rushing yards. Intentionally or not, they changed their entire identity. They are now a team that doesn’t excel in the areas it was meant to excel, but instead relies on the arm of Brett Favre and the passing game. So much so that they have lately seemed to be unable to switch gears and grind out tough yardage when necessary.

Conversely the Cowboys are what they are. They have excellent balance on offense. In Tony Romo, they don’t have a quarterback who is bigger than the system. When they pass they have deep threats (Miles Austin), the possession guy (Patrick Crayton), the X-factor guy (Roy Williams), and a dominant tight end who can do everything in the passing game (Jason Witten). In the running game they have a solid offensive line and a threesome of RB’s who, combined, make them extremely versatile and effective in their attack. All three are excellent receivers out of the backfield, Marion Barber can do everything, but is especially effective at grinding out tough yards, Felix Jones is an absolute home run threat every time he’s on the field, and Tashard Choice gives them a really well rounded guy who can come off the bench and fill in however needed.

They mix all that in perfectly. Not too much run, not too much pass. They just take what’s the defense gives them and tries to do what they do well. Most balanced offense left in the playoffs.

On defense they’re simply the best defense in the NFC. As long as DeMarcus Ware is healthy they have as good a pass rush as any team in the league, the LB’s are playing well as a unit, and the secondary has really surprised me this year. And although I’m not huge on Wade Phillips as a head coach, he can sure coach defense.

So, the closest consensus closest game of the playoffs happens to be one of the few games that I’m not struggling with very much. I’m sticking with my Super Bowl pick.

(I do acknowledge how close it is, so much so that whichever team wins goes to the Super Bowl in my opinion.)

(And as usual, I'm not struggling with this pick, so that means you should take the Vikings. Also I'm dreading this game coming down to FG's, since that's the one weakness of the Cowboys. I hate kicking. I think it should be removed from football. I'm going to write a post about this soon.)

Cowboys 27-21



Jets @ Chargers
Sunday 4:30pm CBS

Mark Sanchez is 1-0 in his rookie season in playoff games. I want to be very clear: I like Mark Sanchez. I think he's going to have a very good career. And I know this might sound asinine, but if he were the Vikings QB I would pick them to win the Super Bowl. (No I'm not saying he's better than Favre. It's a chemistry thing)

I just don't think he's there yet. The Jets were able to survive last week because the Bengals repeatedly killed themselves and that allowed the Jets to control the ball and the clock and only have to ask for 15 throws from Sanchez. Most of those throws were dumpoffs, screens and a couple misdirection rollout plays. The Chargers have a quite possibly the hottest run defense going right now. I can't imagine the Jets having the kind of success they had last week on the ground which will force them to go to the air this week, unlike last week. The Jets are built to be front runners and today I don't see them having that luxury.

The Chargers are loaded offensively. LaDanian, despite looking washed up for about 2 straight seasons, looked to sort of regain some of his old burst. I'm wondering if he realizes that this is pretty much his last chance to leave it all on the field and comes out and plays inspired football in these playoffs? I've never felt that he was a guy who really grasped the concept of winning vs. racking up stats. When he sat out against the Patriots while Philip Rivers limped through the game on a torn ACL, I felt that was a microcosm of his career. But, interestingly, that may have been the best thing that's happened for the Chargers. That was the day that the locker room realized how their leader was. They realized who the guy was that going to leave it all on the field for them, the guy they could follow into battle and trust to have their backs no matter how bad it gets.

In the NFL I think parody is at an all time high. I think every team is loaded with physical talent. I don't think there's a big gap from top to bottom in that area. So what are the components that make up the difference? I think it comes down to 3 main things:

1. Leadership
2. Chemistry
3. Coaching

And I'm not sure about that order. But the point is, your QB is the guy who you want to be that leader. That's why the QB can be one of the slowest, least athletic guys on the football field, and still be your best player. Because they're the guy that everyone is looking to for setting the tone.

When Rivers limped out on the field that day while Tomlinson sat bundled up on the bench, the tone was set. They had a leader who would not leave them through thick and thin. A guy who would leave it all on the field for them. And he has stepped up and taken the reigns of that offense ever since, and the Chargers, not coincidentally, haven't looked back. They have swagger, chemistry, talent. They are the hottest, most complete team in the NFL, and I can't see them struggling with the Jets this week.

Like I said last week, the Jets have a great, GREAT foundation for the future. I just don't think they're there yet.

Chargers 31-14

Did you notice I picked all the teams whose nicknames began with C? That's because C is for Cookie. I don't think that was an accident. I think I subliminally really wanted to find a way to work this in.

Mission accomplished.