There are so many things to talk about right now, but for today I'm going to focus on the NFL. (And for-- never-- I'm going to focus on Roberto Alomar, sorry that's just what you get with me)Mostly out of regret of a blog I intended to be my last blog before my holiday hiatus, but instead failed to write.
Over Thanksgiving Break I got in a discussion with my brother where I insisted that there were 3 teams in the NFL (Saints, Vikings, Colts), who were a combined 32-1 at the time, that would not win the Super Bowl because they play what I like to call "Regular Season Football".
In other words, they're soft.
The main focus point of our discussion was the Vikings who, at the time, looked like the most complete team in football. My feeling was that Brett Favre ruined them by changing their identity from the things they did well last year (defense, power running, ball control, clock management, GIVING THE BEST PLAYER THE BALL), to a gun slinging, fast break style football team that is well suited for "Regular Season Football" (RSF), but not so well suited for "Second Season Football" (SSF) (Dec-Feb).
Since that discussion with my brother, (which I finished by saying, "We'll see what happens when December starts"), those 3 teams have gone a combined 7-8. Yes the Saints sat their starters in the last game of the season and the Colts infamously sat theirs in the second to last game, (not so much the last game until they were already in a sizable deficit), but there's no denying that the SSF has not agreed with those teams the same way the RSF did.
(Admittedly, this applies mostly to the Saints and Vikings, not just because of their December records, but mostly because they just haven't looked good. The Colts have looked a little better, but still not like Super Bowl Champs since the start of December.)
However, I did NOT write this article and it has inspired me to make sure I don't drop the ball even more for my favorite time of year...
The NFL Playoffs!
(First... I'm taking Alabama solidly over Texas tonight. I'm thinking double digits. McElroy will need to play really well and Julio Jones will be the x-factor. That Crimson Tide defense will be more physical and dominant than anything Texas has faced other than Ndamukong Suh himself, only this time they won't have the benefit of not having to worry about the offense on the other side.
Is Nick Saban the most overlooked Head Coach in College Football?)
Ok, now let's get to the bracket:
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
4:30pm NBC
At first glance this game looks tough. Everyone is talking about the regular season finale in which the Jets won 3483-0 and how the Jets might have the best defense in the league and how they run the ball as well as anyone in the league and their coach is on Sportscenter saying they should be favored to win the Super Bowl because of those things.
Almost had me.
I'm confidently taking the Bengals in what I think has the potential to turn into a bit of a rout.
A couple weeks ago I was compiling my (controversial) Power Rankings for the very tight AFC, and it looked like this:
1. Chargers (the only team that I think has separated itself from the pack in the AFC)
2. Bengals
3. Patriots
4. Steelers (IF getting Polamalu back in time for the playoffs... moot point now)
5. Colts
6a. Ravens
6b. Titans
8. Broncos (with healthy Brandon Marshall)
9. Jets
What does that list tell you? Not much. But it does tell you that I'm pretty high on the Bengals. Not sure how high just yet, but I believe they're for real.
They have an excellent QB, a loaded defense that has been playing like a solid unit all season, a running game that just won't quit (TWO 100 yard rushing games against the Ravens for Benson this year), and an excellent WR corps. They're complete, they play as a unit, they're deep, they have great chemistry top to bottom, they believe in each other, they play with a chip on their shoulder, they have swagger, I love everything about this team coming in and think they will really turn some heads.
The Jets, conversely, have 2 impressive wins against the Colts backups (oh wait, that game was actually kind of close) and the Bengals 3rd stringers IN New York, since losing a must win game AT HOME to the walking dead Atlanta Falcons (which SHOULD have eliminated them from the playoffs if not for back to back games against backups).
Basically, I'm not impressed with the Jets at all. I think they've got a great foundation for next year. They focus on the important elements of the game (defense, power running, ball control) and do them well a lot of the time under a first year coach. I think next year they will give my Pats a scare. This year? It's over.
So bet on the Jets because this seems way too easy to me.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Saturday 8:00pm NBC
I'm a sucker for Donovan McNabb. I think he's one of the most underrated QB's in the league. He's got his best cast of weapons on offense since the T.O. days. I would pick them over half the teams in the playoffs. However...
I'm going with Romo.
Do I take Romo over McNabb? I'm not sure. But, he's at least good enough to play him evenly. Romo has quite possibly played the QB position better than ANYONE in football over the month of December. He's clicking perfectly with Miles Austin and Jason Witten. As Skip Bayless (my hero) keeps pointing out, he has 11 TD's to 2 (tipped) interceptions in December. And he's got some of the best pocket presence in the league.(Side-note: Pocket presence is the most underrated trait in QB play. This is what I've always loved about Brady, who has the best PP of all time, easily his best skill, and it's what I continue to believe in about Romo. When a guy can feel comfortable in the pocket, feel what's coming around him without having to stare at the pressure, and know when it's time to move or unload the ball, it drastically improves his ability to avoid mistakes, protect the ball, and check down his receivers. Romo has had a handful of things to work on throughout his short career, but this one trait has remained constant and is the reason that I've always felt he will make it as a successful starting QB.)
I have the QB play about even. As for weapons, DeSean Jackson is the single most explosive player on the field.
However, I think that's about where it ends for the Eagles.
(If Brian Westbrook were still alive this would look a lot different, but since he's not, the matchups seems to go heavily in Dallas' favor from here on out.)
Miles Austin is just a tick below DeSean Jackson and I'll take Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton over Brent Celek and Jeremy Maclin. I'll take the Cowboys healthy offensive line of the Eagles banged up bigs, and I'll take those 3 excellent Cowboys running backs, headed by Marion "the Barbian" Barber (top 5 NFL RB when healthy) over rookie LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook's concussed corpse, in a landslide.
These are both explosive offenses and you could argue that the Eagles is the better offense. Although I personally would take the 'Boys, that argument wouldn't be crazy to me. However, the defensive side of the ball isn't even close. Dallas has a pass rush that is finally firing on all cylinders after a slow start and is the best all around defensive team in the NFC. This is where the game will be won.
I'm taking Dallas for the 3 game season sweep of the Eagles.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Sunday 1:00pm CBS
I'm biased. You know it. I know it. Patriots win. Now let's talk about it.
I love the Ravens. They're big 'dogs in this game in my mind, but they do have a good shot to pull the upset. They have an excellent running game and a good passing game.
The defense is good, but not what it used to be. Which brings me to an interesting point. A humanizing point I guess. Watching Ray Lewis fade away is difficult to watch. He's still awesome, but he used to be awesome. I think it's easy to look at him now and say, 'Wow he's still really good, he barely even looks like he's lost a step', and completely forget what this guy used to be. He's still one of the top LB's in the league, but this man is part of a very short
list of players (LT, Primetime, Lott) I've ever seen who could take over an entire game by himself. This version of Ray Lewis that we have now is not that same guy. This one is good, maybe even great. But that guy was something a little better than "great", as we often use that word in sports. And that's not the same guy who will be linebacking the Ravens defense this weekend.So yes, I think the Ravens are dangerous, but I don't know that they have any of that old magic left in the tank. Ray Lewis of 2002 isn't walking through that door, and the 2009 version isn't going to be enough to stop Tom Brady, Randy Moss aaaand...
Julian Edelman!!!
That's right, I'm not scared one bit by the loss of Wes Welker. When we first got Moss my instant analysis was that Welker would benefit greatly and would look like Brady's favorite target because of two things:
1. The way Brady likes to quick strike to small, quick WR's.
2. The Randy Moss Factor, which causes defensive secondaries to back up and creates all kinds of room to work underneath. Perfectly suited for little, quick guys who are already good at getting open underneath.
Notice that neither of those things were "Wes Welker is great". Because as much as I love Wes Welker, and I do love Wes Welker, he's just not as good as his stats would indicate. He is a product of the system. He's short, tough, quick. He's the proto-type slot reciever, but there are tons like him. And Edelman (a 6th round rookie QB) is poised to prove just that. In fact, Edelman may be even better. As a former college QB, there's no doubt about his grasp of the offense and the way he sees the field, he has even better moves after the catch, and he's a tick bigger. As for top speed it looks like about a wash, although I wouldn't be surprised if Edelman has that edge as well. Overall, I'm not concerned about the loss of Welker at all, as long as Moss and Edelman stay healthy.
Where the Welker loss hurts us is depth, not in top performance.
So since this game seems like a cake walk for the Patriots to me (not sure the final score will indicate that, but I have little doubt about the outcome), what can we expect after the first round?
The Pats play the Chargers no matter what. I think the Pats have a legitimate shot to be the best team in the league. They are playing their best ball of the year right now, and the biggest thing is they're getting healthy for the first time all year. Everyone on D is back. Mayo is as healthy as he's been since Week 1, the poo-poo platter of corners are all healthy as well as our safeties (who I like), and Vince Wilfork AND Ty Warren were both full participants again in practice today. Our Offensive Line is the healthiest it's been all year, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris are just coming back, I've already talked about the Edelman/Welker situation, and Brady looks about as good as he has at any point this year (possible cracked ribs and broken finger on throwing hand aside... that's a reasonable aside right?). Once again the Pats are in their best shape just in time for when it matters, and I would be very afraid if I were the San Diego Chargers.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday 4:40pm FOX
Hands down the toughest first round game for me. At the beginning of the year I was huge on Green Bay. I had them as one of my favorites in a 4 way race for the NFC Championship in the pre-season (Giants, Packers, Vikings, Eagles). It's difficult for me to ever stray completely from a team I started off really high on, even if Aaron Rodgers has the worst pocket presence I've ever seen from a guy with quite possibly zero other weaknesses as a QB. (And even if I had them is the same group as the Giants)
I've also never been big on Kurt Warner. In fact I've always been annoyed by Kurt because he's so overrated, and I therefore root against him for the sake of justice.
However, I watched that Sunday night beatdown they put on Brett Favre and the Vikings on the first Sunday in December and said to myself, 'That's a Championship team'.
Is that one dominant performance enough of a sign of life for me to completely buy into the Cardinals?
No.
I know the Packers don't exactly have the most impressive "signature wins" leading up to the playoffs, but I just like an awful lot about this team. They're so balanced.
Defensively they have the 2nd fewest yards allowed and the 7th fewest points. They have a stellar secondary (Charles Woodson is a Defensive POY candidate playing opposite Al Harris and both safeties are awesome) and a very good front 7.
(My only concern would be if Charles Woodson is hampered by that shoulder injury from last week)
Offensively they have it all. Decent running game that seems to get better as the weather gets worse, tons of weapons for Rodgers (Jennings, Driver, JJones, Jordi Nelson, Lee), and Rodgers himself. And while Rodgers does have a tremendous propensity to take bad sacks, it's not so bad that I wouldn't still take him over Warner.
This is the game I will be the most excited to watch, from a curiosity standpoint. I could see either of these teams catching fire and cruising all the way to the Super Bowl. Easily. The Cardinals also have a defense that is capable of doing everything and really catching fire (although I think it's safe to expect to see D. Rogers-Cromartie getting burned at least once, probably twice, pretty badly). Not quite as good a secondary, but a much better defensive line and overall front 7 (which scares me as someone about to pick the Packers, who are led by a QB who holds the ball too long). And we already know how explosive the Cards offense can be when healthy and clicking.
However, with Boldin potentially hobbled by an ankle injury (which it looks like he will be, by the way), I'm sticking with the Packers like 31-23ish. Which is my token, "I'm not really sure what to expect", score.
After the first round:
Just to throw some stuff out there, (I'll get into more detail as the Playoffs go on).
I'm picking the Cowboys to win the NFC Championship game over the Packers.
I'm picking the Patriots to win the AFC over the Bengals.
Patriots over 'Boys in the Super Bowl.
I have no idea what I'm talking about, but there it is. That's my gut going into it, and I will admit there is a lot of bias involved (see... I admit it when it's true). If there were no bias I would easily have San Diego winning it all, but I can't get away from the Pats this year. I believe in Brady too much and it seems like a pick I would make without bias, but we'll never know. I will, of course, let you know if there's a moment that I'm sure, bias aside, but we're nowhere near there yet.
Of course if anything happens to this guy ----->... all bets are off.
And now I need to go watch the SEC represent against the best team from a much inferior conference, once again.
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