Peyton Manning (Part 2): The Curse

Before we go anywhere, I want to touch on one basic principal of football:

The Quarterback is the most important player on the field.

Football is the ultimate team game. It is unique in that, more so than any other sport, no one player can single-handedly win a game. Lineman must block, RB’s must hit open holes, receivers run routes and make catches, defensive linemen and linebackers must play their gaps and make tackles and defensive backs need to cover receivers.

None of that happens or matters, however, without the QB. The ball is in his hands on every play. He is the catalyst for everything. No other player can affect the game in both an explosive way, and a negative way, like the QB. One well placed pass can change a game. One poor read, costs the whole team a win.

The adage in the NFL, which I agree with, is “Defense wins Championships.” In the greatest TEAM game, I agree with this. I would add however, that QB’s also win championships.

Sound like a contradiction? Well, let’s take a look at what history tells us.
Let’s look at the past say… 25 Super Bowl Champions, and who their QB was (in reverse chronological order):

49ers – Joe Montana
Bears – Jim McMahon
Giants – Phil Simms
Redskins – Doug Williams
49ers – Joe Montana
49ers – Joe Montana
Giants – Phil Simms
Redskins – Mark Rypien
Cowboys – Troy Aikman
Cowboys – Troy Aikman
49ers – Steve Young
Cowboys – Troy Aikman
Packers – Brett Favre
Broncos – John Elway
Broncos – John Elway
Rams – Kurt Warner
Ravens – Trent Dilfer
Patriots – Tom Brady
Buccaneers – Brad Johnson
Patriots – Tom Brady
Patriots – Tom Brady
Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger
Colts – Peyton Manning
Giants – Eli Manning
Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger

So that’s 16 different QB’s in the past 25 years.

7 of them are either already in the Hall of Fame, (Montana, Aikman, Young, Elway), or already virtually guaranteed 1st ballot enshrinement, (Favre, Brady, Peyton).

Roethlisberger is well on his way.

Warner is a constant debate in terms of his Hall chances, but he will likely make it, (maybe not first ballot, but a short wait still counts). If not, he would be a very narrow omission. There is no doubt that at the very least, he was playing excellent football in his Super Bowl year, leading the league in Touchdowns (41) and QB Rating (109.2) on his way to being named both League MVP and Super Bowl MVP.

That leaves us with 7, (McMahon, Simms, Williams, Rypien, Dilfer, Johnson, Eli).

Jim McMahon won his with what was, at the time, the 3rd stingiest defense the NFL had ever seen in a 16 game season (now 6th). Many would argue this to be the greatest defense in league history.

Phil Simms won his two rings with the defense allowing the 2nd fewest points, (1986, Lawrence Taylor became the only defensive player to ever win a League MVP however), and 1st fewest points, (1991), in the league for their respective Super Bowl seasons.

Trent Dilfer won his with THE stingiest defense ever to play a 16 game season. Many who would not argue in favor of McMahon's '85 Bears as the greatest defense ever, would choose this Ravens team instead.

Then, Brad Johnson won his with the 6th fewest points allowed in a 16 game season as well as the highest scoring defense in league history (9 defensive touchdowns, not including the playoffs in which they added 4 more and created 13 turnovers in 3 playoff games). Overall, this may not be the best defense the league has seen. For 3 playoff games however, they were as good as anyone who's ever done it.

That leaves us with Williams, Rypien, and Eli Manning.

Those are the 3 who are left who weren’t either Hall of Fame material, or playing with a truly historic defense on the other side of the ball.

Rypien, who was a solid NFL QB during his NFL career, which included 2 Pro Bowls, was playing his best ball, hands down, in that Super Bowl year. He finished the regular season 4th in passing yards, 2nd in touchdowns and 2nd in QB Rating. In the playoffs he had 4 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. He played great in the last 2 of their 3 playoff games. The first game, in which he played sub-par, was a 24-7 victory which was never in doubt.

The last two, Eli and Williams, you could argue, are the two exceptions, of the last 25 years.

Doug Williams’ Redskins team was an excellent, well balanced team. Williams played very well in those playoffs and played a truly great game in the Super Bowl. However, his season does not support the rule.

Eli Manning’s Giants, who were huge underdogs against the 18-0 New England Patriots, had an up and down season that ended with them having a stingy defense that was one of the best at rushing the passer, as well as a balanced offense. Eli is a former #1 overall draft pick, who has, by all accounts, lived up to that draft position. However, his season also, does not support the rule.

So there you have it. 23 out of the last 25 Super Bowl Champions have had either an all-time defense, or an excellent QB (I'm counting Rypien because he was excellent that year). Thus, the adage that “Defense wins Championships” as well as the theory that "the Quarterback is the single most important player" both seem to hold a good amount of water.

Therefore, I feel confident saying that more often than not, to win a Championship, you need either:

A. An all-time level of dominant play from your defense.

or

B. An excellent Quarterback.

That, to me, makes the Quarterback the single most important player on a football team and the single player who is most responsible for winning or losing.

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For the sake of context, if you haven't read Peyton Manning Part 1, you probably should take a moment to do so before continuing on...

In football, the quarterback, unlike other positions, is judged by one thing above all else. Winning. The stats give us a great starting off point for judging a QB's success, but they definitely don't tell the whole story.

In the NFL, winning, means Super Bowls. It means getting it done at the highest level. When the stage is the biggest, who shines the brightest?

The rule, as always, "You playyyy, to winnnnn, the gaaaaaaaammmee."

(Thank you soooo much Herm!)

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The Questions:

Peyton Manning, barring injury, should finish with every conceivable career passing record to his credit. Yet, there is an ugly truth that has haunted his career.

7-8

That's Manning's record, to date, in the playoffs. Admittedly it's not the worst record ever. However, it's definitely not the stuff legends are made of. Of that, we can be sure. And when you look at the fact that 4 of those 7 wins came in that one Super Bowl run, it really makes you wonder...

How could this be?

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There can be a few different reasons to explain a great player, specifically a Quarterback, underachieving in the playoffs. I think the main ones would be:

1. Porous Defense
2. Weak Supporting Cast
3. Bad Coaching

So let's look at the possibilities for why Peyton hasn't been more successful.

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1. Weak Defense?:


In the regular season, Peyton has had some truly terrible defenses to work with. 6 of his 11 years with the Colts, (not including this year in which, through 10 games, they are ranked #1), featured a defense that was in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. In spite of that, he has routinely carried this Colts team to the playoffs in all but 2 of his 11 years in Indy. Those 2 years the defense ranked 29th and 31st in points allowed. So 4 of their 9 playoff years they finished in the bottom half of league in points allowed during the regular season.

However, once the playoffs start has it been the same story? We don't question Peyton's greatness in the regular season. What we're aiming for is determining what is going wrong in the playoffs. So what have those defenses played like in the playoffs?

I suppose first we need to have an understanding of what an average playoff defense should look like. So, let's establish some statistics so that we have a concrete starting point. No guessing. No assumptions. Just the facts.

Going back to 1999, (Peyton's first playoff year), the average points allowed per game, per team, in the playoffs is: 21.773

In Peyton's 15 career playoff games, his Colts have allowed: 21.934 ppg

So that's good for a difference of: 0.161 ppg

Less than .2 points per game. I'm not in a rush to label that as an atrocious defense. I would call that average.

However, let's give Peyton the full benefit of the doubt and acknowledge that as a slightly below average defense.

0.161 points per game below average.

So the defense was not stellar. Decent in the playoffs, but still left a little desired. So why didn't the organization get some help on that side of the ball?

I believe that answer is simple. Look no further than the main cogs in the offense itself...

2. Offensive Weapons?:

Let's start by taking a look at the way the Colts have acquired Peyton's supporting cast...

Ken Dilger - #48 overall pick (2nd round)- 1995 - 2001

Marvin Harrison - #19 overall pick (1st round)- 1996 - 2008

Tarik Glenn - #17 overall pick (1st round)- 1997 - 2006

Adam Meadows - #48 overall pick (2nd round)- 1997 - 2003

Peyton Manning - #1 overall draft pick (1st round)- 1998 - present

Jerome Pathon - #32 overall draft pick (2nd round)- 1998 - 2001

Edgerrin James - #4 overall pick (1st round)- 1999 - 2005

Jeff Saturday - undrafted - 1999 - present

Reggie Wayne - #30 overall pick (1st round)- 2001 - present

Dallas Clark - #24 overall pick (1st round)- 2003 - present

Joseph Addai - #30 overall pick (1st round)- 2006 - present

I don't know about you, but I feel like it's safe to say that the Colts strategy in the draft is to focus on keeping a well stocked offense (9 of the last 13 1st round picks used on offense).

They have drafted well, (I have maintained for years that, for my money, Bill Polian is the best General Manager in football in terms of scouting and philosophy). All of the aforementioned players went on start at least 30 games for the Colts, the fewest of which was Pathon, by a large margin. There have been a combined total of 28 Pro Bowl selections between the players listed above. The Colts have also been extremely lucky in terms of injuries. Peyton's 3 biggest supporting weapons, Edge, Harrison and Wayne, had missed a combined total of 22 games due to injury until 2007. 16 of those were by Edge. Leaving 6 missed games to injury by Harrison and Wayne. In a timing and precision based passing offense, that consistency has been extremely good fortune.

So since there has clearly been such a focus on offense from an organizational standpoint, and there is only so much space under the salary cap, the defense has gotten the short end of the stick.

We will revisit this a little further on, however, for now we will leave this potential reason with the simple conclusion:

The Offensive weapons certainly have not been an issue during Peyton's tenure with the Colts.

3. Coaching?:

Peyton's Offensive Coordinator, Tom Moore, arrived in Indianapolis in 1998. The year before drafting Manning.

In 10 of his previous 16 years as Offensive Coordinator (Steelers, Vikings, Lions), Moore's offenses finished in the top half of the league in points scored.

I'm not going to spend a lot of time going into the numbers of what his offenses achieved under him (I will just mention that Scott Mitchell did throw for 4,338 Yards, 32 Touchdowns and only 12 Interceptions for a 92.3 QB Rating his 2nd year under Moore, just because it kind of blew my mind). But, for the most part they were solid, nothing too spectacular. Let's not waste time.

The relevant thing here is that he was a proven, capable coordinator, and has been there Manning's entire career. It's very impressive work by the Colts to maintain Moore's services. While, yes, he is one of the highest paid assistants in the leauge, it is still impressive that he has never moved on.

Again, on to the conclusion:

It is safe to say that coaching has been steady enough that it is also not at fault for the Colts playoff blunders. If anything, I personally feel that this has been a big benefit to Manning.

So having answered those 3 questions, let's look at the big picture and see what exactly has gone on?

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The Curse:

Remember, we're talking about the playoffs here. That's what matters. No one can question Manning's regular season legacy. What is in question is, if he's great, why doesn't he get it done when it matters, in the playoffs?

We're talking about the guy who has led downright legendary offenses throughout his career. Those offenses have, allegedly, been let down by the aforementioned defense in the playoffs. So now let's take a look at this Colts team as a whole. Why exactly was that defense so "bad". Why didn't the organization get him some help?

Guess who gets paid the most money? 1st round draft picks.

The higher the pick, the more expensive they are. And if they produce? It costs a lot to resign them.

Manning's offense was loaded with #1 picks. The most expensive of the group would be Manning himself. The fact of the matter is simple:

This team spent the majority of their money on offense.

They had a very above average offense. And they produced. We have all lauded Payton for his otherworldly offensive production. He has been put into discussions of the greatest QB's of all time because of the things we've seen him do in the regular season. Manning supporters have excused the playoff shortcomings by pointing the finger at the defense.

My question is this:

If you're Peyton Manning, and your organization is going to spend all that money on your offensive weapons, and you're going to put up all those numbers and take all that praise for those regular season numbers, (if we're being honest, that's basically ALL his legacy is built on at this point), then don't you sort of have to accept the fact that they are going to need above average production from your offense in the playoffs?

I mean, that's assumed right?

They clearly decided somewhere along the way...

"Look we're just going to use all our first round draft picks on offensive weapons, and if we give Peyton enough to work with, we'll just outscore everyone by more than our putrid defenses will give up."

Doesn't it seem like that had to be the thought process? I'm not saying Payton lobbied for that. At least not at first, (although, when it came time to start re-signing guys he's certainly never hid his desire for the franchise to do what it takes to keep his weapons around him). However, I think the situation is obvious. The Colts simply surrounded with with a plethora of talent and kept that offensive talent well stocked his entire career.

(This year, 2009, is by far the worst supporting cast Peyton has played with since his rookie year. Peyton is also playing as well as, if not better, than ever. A phenomena we will discuss a little bit further down.)

So, since we can pretty easily determine that the onus was clearly placed on Peyton and his offense to overcome their defensive deficiencies in the playoffs, (which, again, turned out to be barely off from average, which was much better than was logical to expect), let's see how they responded.

(Beware, this is where it starts getting ugly)

We'll start with the same approach of looking at average points scored per game (playoffs) since 1999: 21.773

Now let's look at what the Colts offense has scored per game in games they were eliminated from the playoffs: 13.625

(We're only looking at the games they lost because we're addressing the belief that they lost in the playoffs because of the defense, which assumes that the offense showed up. And since we just determined that the Colts clearly spent their money on the Offensive side of the ball, thus neglecting the defense to an extent, they expected the offense to be above average, not simply average. Because it would also be safe to assume the defense would be below average.)

8.148 points per game below average!

What's even worse, is that in 15 total games, (now we're including all the wins), the offense still only averages 22.8 ppg. That's 1.03 points per game more than the NFL average in the post-season. I would go as far as to say that these numbers are downright abhorrently underwhelming.

If we go even deeper, we see that in back to back years the Colts had the good fortune of playing the defenseless Denver Broncos at home in the first round. The first of those two years, a win over Denver (Peyton's first career playoff win) was followed up with getting the even more defenseless Kansas City Chiefs the next game.

In those 3 games the Colts put up 128 points (42.67ppg), and Manning put up 1,139 passing yards, 12 TD's, 1 INT.

Both years the two games to follow were losses. A 14-24 loss to New England in 2003 and a 3-20 loss in 2004, also to New England.

If you take away those 3 early round offensive explosions of Peyton's 15 career playoff games, his offense is left averaging 17.83 ppg (3.94 ppg fewer than the league playoff average), and Peyton himself is throwing for a very pedestrian 255.75 yards per game, 10 TD's, 16 INT's.

Actually, forget pedestrian! Those numbers are straight up, way below average. Not average. Not simply, "off his game." Those numbers are well below league averages. And the average offense is not even as talented as the one Peyton works with. Yet the average QB puts up better numbers than that. Plain and simple.

If you were to tell me those would be the numbers of my QB in the playoffs, I would have serious doubts about how comfortable I would be going into the playoffs with him as my backup. I would be holding my breath every time my starter got touched. You cannot win with those numbers.

I know I just threw out a lot of numbers, and I hope it was clear enough to follow, but can we safely say that the whole, "Peyton lost because he didn't have a defense" argument holds about as much water as a screen door on a submarine?

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Now let's take a look at what Peyton did in each of those loses on a game by game basis so we can better understand whether or not he's just getting a bad rap.

(This article is pretty old, 2005, but the guys at ColdHardFootballFacts.com did a great job breaking down Manning's playoff games from '99 -'05 and I'm about to reference a lot of their work. I recommend taking a quick peek at this article. Or at the least, know that a lot of the statistical heavy lifting coming up was done by those guys.)

1999. Peyton's first career playoff game, first career playoff loss. Manning posted a 60.9 passer rating. His worst game of the season.

2000. 2nd career playoff game. Overtime loss. Manning's passer rating of 82.0 was the fifth worst of the season (The best performance in a playoff loss in his first 5 years in the league).

2001. Missed playoffs. Peyton's 4 INT's in a mid-season "must win", result in a 3rd straight loss, dropping the Colts to 4-6 and sparking a skid which saw the Colts end the season on a 2-7 run and, most importantly, leads to this legendary meltdown by Jim Mora.

2002. 3rd career playoff game. Manning posted a passer rating of 31.2 – the single worst game of his career. They get shutout by the Dolphins.

2003. After high scoring, back-to-back drubbings of Denver and Kansas City the Colts lose to New England. Manning posted a passer rating of 35.5 – his worst game of the season and third worst of his career.

2004. After dropping 49 points on Denver in the first round, Manning, who set an NFL record for TD's that year with 49 and was named MVP of the league, was supposed to have his best team ever. The Colts bowed out of the playoffs with a 20-3 loss to New England. Manning posted a passer rating of 69.3 – his worst game of the season.

(This was the first NFL game I ever got to attend live. Unbelievable experience. This was the "Cut That Meat!" game. Peyton looked visibly shook. There was never a doubt to me or anyone around me that he would not hurt us on that day. Just a surreal thing to witness.)

2005. The Colts lose to the 6th seeded Steelers in their first game of the playoffs, 18-21. Leading to this postgame press conference.

(Wild side-tangent: This press conference drove me particularly nuts. If there was ever one minor microcosm of a reason as to why I have never cared much for Peyton Manning and would never call myself a "fan" of his, it's this moment (or this one). My logic here is that you cannot suck up to all the praise and adoration for all those regular season numbers, which would be unattainable if the organization spent more money on defense and let Edge and/or Marvin Harrison walk when they were free agents, and then turn around and play up to the idea that you lose because you don't have a defense. And in the same token, the amount of pre-snap theatrics that Peyton does are absolutely over the top and unnecessary. No other QB in the NFL goes through that much theatrics, yet there are several who make just as many pre-snap adjustments. Heck, you don't see the same level of chaos and arm flapping from a QB running the no huddle that you see from Peyton on an average play. And what does the media, and the announcers, and his coaches do? They praise him for it. They praise him for adjusting all the coverages and blitz pickups at the line and for how cerebral he is. Which is fine with me. If you want to do that, maybe argue that it confuses the defense, whatever, it is totally fine with me. Just like spending all your money and draft picks and cap space on offense is fine with me. HOWEVER, to go into a press conference after a game in which you did about as much pre-snap theatrics as ever, and blame your offensive line and your teammates for the "protection problems"?? When I thought it was YOU who was calling out those blitz pickups and coverages in the first place??? Right? Isn't that what you've lead us to believe all this time? This felt like a slap in the face. Let's just move on.)

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Ok, so I'm not sure that this has been my clearest and most concise breakdown ever. So let's get a quick recap:

Defense in the playoffs: .161 more points per game allowed than league average.

Offense in the playoffs in losses: 8.148 points per game below league average.

Franchise drafting/spending: Heavily on offensive weapons.

Expectation/Gameplan: Our offense will make up for our defense.

Peyton individually in playoff loses: Some of his worst individual performances of his career.

Overall playoff success: 3-6 to this point, with that glaring omission, "No Super Bowls".

Okay, I think we're all caught up!

Which brings us to...

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The Super Bowl:

The knock on Manning was clearly that he can't get it done in the playoffs. The question was, what do we do with all those stats if he never gets a ring?

Then 2006 happened.

The offense wasn't quite as good as in years past. Still one of the best in the league, but not like 2004. And the defense? Putrid as "always". Except for real this time. The 2006 regular season defense for the Colts was one of the worst defenses the league has seen in history for a playoff team. They were giving up a whopping 173 rushing yards per game during the regular season!

Something happened right before the playoffs however. Something that didn't seem like it would make that much of a difference. It was a small thing. 5'8" to be exact. His name was Bob Sanders. Bob was injured for the majority of the regular season and the impact he made when he came back was truly the stuff legends are made of.

The Colts did not have a first round bye in 2006, which meant that to win a Super Bowl would mean a 4 game post-season. Certainly this would not be the year for the Colts. That was the story. The defense was at an all time low, and if they were going to do anything it would require a superhuman effort from Peyton Manning. Especially since their inability to stop the run was about to be magnified with a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs who boasted the league's second most dominant running game. Spearheaded by Larry Johnoson who racked up 1789 yards on the regular season and scored 17 TD's. So how would Peyton respond? Would this be the year that he and his offense would show up in the playoffs?

Umm... not so much.

In that first game Peyton threw for 278 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT's, 71.9 QB rating. Season over. Right?

Actually, no. The Colts Defense absolutely shut down the Chiefs and their vaunted running game, holding them to a mere 44 yards on the ground and forcing 3 turnovers in what somehow ended up being something of a slug fest. It was absolutely inexplicable. Peyton was downright horrible. The first 3 scores for Indy were all Vinatieri field goals. The next was a rushing touchdown by Joseph Addai. It wasn't until the 4th qtr that Manning finally threw his lone touchdown to somewhat salvage his statistical day. Yet, they got the win.

"Ok, we survived the jitters, now Peyton would take this second chance at life and explode in the next game. Right?"

Umm... not exactly.

Peyton came out in this game and put up a whopping 170 Yards, 0 TD's, 2 INT's, 39.6 QB rating (ironically the same exact rating you get if you take the ball one time and fire it directly into the ground to no one).

Surely they were done now.

The defenses of the 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens and 2002 Buccaneers all mashed into one couldn't overcome a performance like that from an offense based on it's QB play.

Wrong again! Somehow the Colts defense overcame Peyton's 2 interceptions, caused 4 of their own, and held the Ravens 12th ranked offense to 244 total yards. The Colts won again 15-6 in a game featuring zero touchdowns.

Then they faced a depleted New England defense and Manning, (to his credit), finally showed up. It took the entire first half, (that's 10 quarters of playoff football, if you're scoring at home), for him to finally break out of his post-season daze, but he did. In the 3rd qtr, down 21-6 to a New England team featuring such offensive stars as Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, Peyton finally punched in a 1 yard touchdown on a QB sneak to make it 13-21. Against a Patriots defense that was so injury riddled that we saw Erick Alexander go from backup, to number 1 LB on the depth chart by the second half, an all out shootout ensued between the two future Hall of Fame QB's.

In the end it came down to 4th down and as we saw Troy Brown run an "in" when Brady was throwing an "out", the showdown came to an end.

Peyton and the Colts had finally made it to the Super Bowl, (not to mention beat New England), with Peyton throwing for 262 yards/game, 2 TD's, 6 INT's, thanks to a defense that allowed a stingy 16 ppg and 73 rushing yards through 3 games.

I'm not trying to be a pessimist. Really, I'm not. But, this is the thing that validates him??? Really?? We're gonna give him this one?

Am I crazy here, or was this the biggest gift/fluke/lucky turn of events possibly in sports history!?

Okay, maybe that's hyperbole, I have no idea. I just know that Peyton Manning is not the reason the Colts were in the Super Bowl. Or the AFC Championship. Or even out of the first round!

In the Super Bowl game the defense and running game led the way yet again. After Devin Hester's opening kickoff return for a TD, the Bears went on to score a total of 10 points and commit 5 turnovers the rest of the way, (the last of which was an INT returned for a game icing touchdown when the game was still close at 22-17). As for the Colts offense, Peyton went for what was, by his playoff standards, a solid performance. 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Thrilling Peyton. Thrilling.

We mentioned Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday (and the rest of an extremely consistent offensive line) are all on this offense right?!?! I just want to make sure no one got confused about what team we're talking about with all these bland stats.

Meanwhile, mainstay Domenic Rhodes ran for 113 yards on 21 carries with on of the Colts 2 offensive TD's, and 1st round pick Joseph Addai chipped in another 77 yards on 19 carries to go along with his 10 catches for 66 yards.

Of course, Petyon was named Super Bowl MVP. (Thanks for the balls media)

And that, my friends, is how Peyton Manning "broke" his playoff curse.

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Since then, the Colts are 0-2 in the playoffs. Bringing Peyton's overall playoff record back below .500 at 7-8.

Which brings us full circle to the original question.

What is Peyton Manning's legacy?

Each person must decide for themselves and will rank him wherever they will.

For me, we have a guy who, in my opinion, is the greatest regular season Quarterback of all time.

Has he done that with the best supporting offense of anyone else in the discussion?

Yes.

However, I'm still going to give it to him. He has been awesome. It's not a landslide, (Brady, Young, Montana, Marino, Favre, all in the discussion), but with the wins, the poor defensively play, and of course, the stats, I feel he's earned it.

And then on the other hand, we have one of the worst, (given his offensive weapons to work with), and most underachieving playoff Quarterbacks the game has ever seen.

Since the Quarterback is responsible, first and foremost, for winning, I don't see any possible conclusion except that Manning has been wildly overrated by a national media and adoring public that have repeatedly insinuated that he may be the greatest QB to ever play the game.

In fact, I think it's a little ignorant to even have him in that discussion.

Great? Sure.

Greatest? Please be serious.

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Does that mean he won't ever be in that discussion?

Absolutely not. In fact, this is where it gets very interesting. Since winning that Super Bowl, I feel like Peyton has been a different player.

Sure he followed up the SB by going 0-2 the last two years in the playoffs, but it must be pointed out that the last 2 years, (as well as this season), he was playing with the worst offenses of his career.

It's also worth pointing out that he actually played decent in those two loses. Not really quite his regular season level, no, but decent.

'07 - 24 points, 402 yards, 3 td's, 2 int's

'08 - 17 points, 310 yards, 1 td, 0 int's

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Here's the thing with Manning, he has been a choker. And it's not just his NFL career.

In High School he was a 3 year starter. He threw for 7,204 yards and 92 touchdowns in those 3 years. He was named New Orleans Quarterback Club Player of the Year, the Gatorade Circle of Champions National Player of the Year, and the Louisiana Class 2A MVP... twice. He led Isidore Newman to a 34-5 record in those 3 years.

Yet, the furthest they went in his time was the 2A Semifinals in his sophomore year, despite being favored over the team they lost to all 3 years.

In college, at the University of Tennessee, he re-wrote the school's record books for passing statistics in 3 and a half years as the starter. He broke the SEC record for career wins going 39-6 as a starter. He was runner-up for the Heisman his senior year.

Yet, despite being ranked as high as #2 Manning's Junior Year, and #3 going into the Orange Bowl against #2 Nebraska his senior year, (a game they only scored 17 points in and lost), it wasn't until the year after Manning left for the NFL that the Vols finally captured a National Championship. And possibly most important to some UT fans, Peyton was 0-3 as a starter against the Florida Gators.

Then he got to the NFL and it kept repeating. Year after year the season ended in the same agonizing way for Peyton and the Colts.

If you look at it, that is a lot of coming up short for one career. I can't help but feel that with each big game loss, that monkey on his back just got bigger and bigger. 3 years of HS ball, 4 years of college ball, that's 7 straight years of losing the big game! I believe it had a snowballing negative effect on his confidence.

That doesn't excuse it, but I think I understand it a little.

I think it was on his mind all the time. He had every accolade possible at every level, but never won a big game. In fact, seems to have lost almost all of them.

Then he got that ring in 2006. He made it. His career was now complete really. He was already considered the best QB in the game, (for whatever reason). Now he had accomplished everything.

And you know what?

I believe it changed him.

I believe he changed.

All of a sudden he actually played fairly decent in his next two playoff games. He actually was an assassin in the annual showdown against the Patriots in '08, for the first time in his career.

As a Patriots fan, I knew there was something different going on. For the first time in my life, he scared me. I had never been scared by him before. The old Peyton was just a big goof who I never had an inkling of doubt would turtle with the game on the line. But, this new Peyton... This new Peyton was different. This guy had a gleam in his eye. He almost seemed to get more composed the tighter the game got. He was an absolute killer. And for the first time I realized...

"Oh crap, he actually looks like he might be about to start playing as great as everyone has always said he is."


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So what will his legacy be when all is said and done?

I guess it's still too early to tell.

Sure, he'll have all the stats and most people will laud him as one of, if not THE greatest. But, where will he really end up? Well, it's a Quarterback's job to win. So I guess we'll have to wait for a few more playoffs to find out the answer to that.

As for now, he stands as possibly the most dominating offensive force the game has ever seen, (reg. season), and also a guy who can't lead his team to victory when it matters.

One of the great paradoxes in the game's history, but not it's greatest Quarterback.

Not for now, at least.

True Fandom

So first off, I think I need to clear up some things from Peyton Manning Part 1.

I am not a Peyton Manning fan.

What does that even mean though? As far as being a "Fan" goes, I think there are levels of fandom. For now, let's just boil it down to, (assuming you are a fan at all), True Fan, or Casual Fan. Sure there's also Fair Weather Fans, Bandwagon Fans, etc, but I just want to focus on these two for a second.

I can easily use myself as an example for both.

The Casual Fan:
This is me when it comes to baseball and my favorite baseball team, the Red Sox. Yeah, I'm from the Boston area. The Sox are definitely my team, no question about it. That being said, most of the year, I just don't really care. I mean, I pay attention. I listen to sports talk radio and, while I admit, I'm twice as likely to change the station when they're talking about the Sox, I still do listen to a fair amount of the over abundance of Sox-talk here in New England. I can usually tell you our starting lineup. I usually know where we are in the standings, even during the doldrums of the 160-whatever game season. I at least usually know where we stand in the AL East. I even instinctively root against the Yankees! I tune in when October rolls around, especially if we've got a real shot at winning it all. Or, of course, if we're playing the Yankees. However, for the most part, I just don't really care. The idea of watching any of the first 150, or so, games of the season is my idea of nothing.

2004 against the Yankees was one of the coolest things in my life as a sports fan. I tuned in for every game of that series and almost every game of the playoffs. I loved that "Idiot" team. I loved Cowboy Up! I loved Papi and Manny's handshakes, Johnny Damon's hair and valley girl I.Q., Kevin Millar's sanity, Pokey Reese's defense (and name), everything that came out of the mouth of Pedro Martinez, and everything about Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera was, in fact, probably my favorite player from that team. His energy, his defense, how much he just loved being here, his clutch play, everything. Then we didn't re-sign him, and I'm still bitter. I feel like not keeping him as our short stop has haunted us ever since. And you know what...

I have no idea if I'm right about that!

That's the thing! I'm just a casual fan. I don't know why we couldn't keep him. I don't know if he was really any better than anyone we've gotten since. I don't even know who he plays for right now! I don't know what he's done since leaving, and you know, I'm not going to look it up. See, I'm just a casual baseball fan. I don't really care to know those things. I would like to, but not enough to find out.

If it was October and we had a real shot at doing something, I would do some homework. Sure. Maybe I would even look up what Orlando has been up to since I last saw him. But we're not, and I won't. I enjoy the Sox, but I don't loooove the Sox. More to the point, I don't really like baseball.

The True Fan:
This is me when it comes to the New England Patriots (and Boston Celtics for that matter). This is me when it comes to the sport of football (and basketball, but focusing on football for the moment). I love football. I mean, I really looooove football. And I really love the Pats.

I grew up in Florida. Ever since was about 11 years old I have loved the Pats. I mean, loved the Pats. I took a tremendous amount of verbal abuse from Miami Dolphins fans, but not once did I ever think of thinking a kind thought towards the Dolphins. Even then, I realized they were in our division and their successes and failures had a direct correlation to ours.

Obviously, my ability to follow the Pats and know what was going on has grown over the years. Around age 15 I probably would've described myself as a True Fan. Since then my opinion of what that really means has changed a bit.

Being a True Fan goes deeper than love of the jersey. It goes deeper than wanting your team to win every week. It's more than knowing all the players and their stats. It's not all about hating our opponents and rivals.

It's about grasping the big picture. It's about having a sense of history. It's about appreciating the game being played the right way. If you're a fan of a team, that doesn't mean you're a fan of that team. That's what I was to the Sox in '04. I was a fan of that team. The "Idiots". It wasn't about the 86 years or any of that for me. It was just about that team, and the Yankees. Sure all that history played into it and added to the experience, but those things didn't hit me on an emotional level. Those things weren't the reason I was tuning in. For the True Fans, however, it was about something more. It meant a lot more to them and I knew it. And I appreciated it. For them it was about the years of suffering. It was about being able to chant "Yankees suck", and have it finally be true. It was about the Red Sox being legitimately better than New York and everyone else. Even if it was for just one year, we were legitimate. For the first time in most of their lives, we were making progress in the championship count with the Yankees. 1 down, 25 to go. That was the big picture. We gained ground. And for at least one year, we were everything we feel like we should always be.

Would I have loved coming back from 0-3, even if we went on to lose to the St. Louis Cardinals? Yeah, I probably would have. Would a True Fan look back on that fondly? No way. It would've been looked at as a tragedy. I mean, don't get me wrong. Everyone would certainly always love that the only time someone came back from 0-3 was us against the Yankees. Any fondness related to that memory however, would quickly be replaced by feelings of regret and loss in the hearts of all True Fans, conjuring up thoughts of Buckner, Bucky Dent, Aaron Boone and everything else. Because in the big picture, it would still be 26-0, Yanks. And that's the only score that really matters.

When you're a true fan, you're either a fan of the franchise, a fan of the player, or some combination of the two. You're rooting interest is tied to the history of the game. It's about your team, your guys, and how history will look back on them. In sports, it's all about one thing... competition. And, by extension, legacy.

What is competition? Competition determines legacy. It's winning and losing. It's being the best, or being everyone else. Well, when you root for a team, a franchise, a jersey, being the best can't be about one year. It's got to be about the big picture. Even when you root for an individual, eventually it will come down to their place in history.

For some players (Steve Young, Ray Lewis, Peyton Manning, Moses Malone, Kevin Garnett) just winning a championship legitimizes their career. Whether it sets them solidly at the top of their tier, or just officially puts their name into that "Greatest" discussion, getting that ring has a huge effect on legacy. For some players (Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Corey Dillon, Chauncy Billups, Rasheed Wallace,) they're just thrilled to be there. It sets them apart from the rest of the players in their tier, albeit, a lower tier. Not in the discussion of "Greatest". For some players (Dan Marino, Charles Barkley, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash) it is the unavoidable, glaring omission separating them from others on that highest level.

Franchises are no different. For some (Yankees, Red Sox, Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers, Canadiens, Red Wings, Bruins, Celtics, Lakers) it is the standard. For these franchises every season is like a new game. Maybe even just another play in one big, ongoing game. You hoist a banner at the end, you scored one more point. Simple as that.

For others, (Bengals, Bills, Clippers, Islanders, Mariners, every Cleveland team), just winning a championship is all their fans ask for.

"Just get us on the board. Please, for the love, please don't let us get shut out. Don't let all my rooting be for nothing."

Just one championship would make it all worth it for these fans.

Or so they think.

Until they get one.

Once you're on the board everything changes. You realize it's not about getting on the board. It's about winning the game. This is competition. Like Herm Edwards said, "you playyy, to winnnn, the gaaaammmmee".

And I think as fans-- as True Fans-- that's what we root for. We grasp the big picture. We want our guys to win. Whether it's our team, our guys, whoever, we want them to win. And it's an ongoing thing. It doesn't end after one season.

Ask me how I know? Because I lived it.

Before 2001-02 with the Pats, I thought all we could ever ask for was just to get one. To get on the board. One sheared major blood vessel in the chest of Drew Bledsoe later, and that was no longer enough. The playoffs weren't enough. This is now about a dynasty. This is now about the Steelers 4 Super Bowls in 6 years. This is about Tom Brady's legacy. It's about securing our place in history.

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So when I say I'm not a Peyton Manning fan, it doesn't mean I don't respect him. It doesn't even mean I don't like him. To me, it means I don't want to see his legacy enhanced. It means I feel like his legacy is already overrated and I don't want to see him placed above more deserving players in the eyes of the history of the game. That's what it's all about in the end. Legacy.

So do I like Peyton Manning? Sort of. It does annoy me the way he seems to suck up to the adoring public, the way the league and the media fall all over themselves for the First Family of the NFL, his penchant for throwing teammates under the bus instead of taking the blame for his own collapses. However, even with that short list of things that annoy me, I wouldn't say I dislike him. I don't think he sucks. I don't hope he dies. None of those things represent how I feel. And none of those things, to me, have anything to do with True Fandom.

True Fandom, to me, is what enables me to appreciate a player like Peyton. To see what he's been to the game. To embrace that he's approached the game the right way, the passion he has for it, and the way he's played it at the highest level.

So do I like him?

Eh... I'm apathetic.

But, I sure do respect him.

I think it's important to grasp these things in their proper light. Yes, I can write a post about how awesome one of our biggest rivals has been. And yes, I'm hoping someone else knocks him out of the playoffs before we have to. And-- most importantly-- no... I am not a Peyton Manning fan.

Did I mention I kinda love this guy? --->

He's just so awesome.

I know, I know, I'm not a real fan. What can I say?


Now that we've got all that cleared up, Peyton Manning (Part 2) should be done early next week.

Peyton Manning (Part 1): The Gift

Peyton Manning is probably going to break every single career passing record out there. Marino did it. Then Favre did it. And Manning looks to be next in line. For the past decade of NFL football, he has constantly been regarded by experts, analysts, and talking heads everywhere, as the best quarterback in the game. When those experts, analysts and talking heads start to talk about his all-time standing among QB's, they often rush to point to where his stats will likely end up, and often come to the conclusion that he is one of, if not THE best to ever play. They love him so much they've voted him the NFL MVP 3 times already. They voted him Super Bowl MVP in a game in which he threw for 247 yards 1 TD and 1 INT with a QB rating of 81.8, leading an offense that scored all of 2 total touchdowns. Meanwhile his starting RB in the game ran for 113 yards and a TD on 21 carries and his other RB had 77 yards on 19 carries with 10 catches for another 66 yards. Did I mention his defense caused 5 turnovers, the last of which was an INT returned for a TD when it was only a 5 point game?

Okay, so I probably just got ahead of myself and gave away where this blog is headed. But, the question remains, what do we make of Peyton Manning's career?

The Gift:

Gotta start with the stats. They're unbelievable. If you're not a fan of numbers you might want to skip down a few paragraphs, because this guy has more numbers than Texas Instruments. If you are a fellow number cruncher, buckle up!

Manning is currently 5th all time in career yardage and is expected to move up to 3rd (behind 1. Favre, 2. Marino) before the midway point of next season. He is 3rd all time in passing touchdowns (1. Favre, 2. Marino), 4th in completions and 8th in attempts for a career .647 completion percentage, which is the highest completion % among anyone in the top 30 in all-time completions. He does all this while staying all the way down at 40th in career interceptions, which explains why he boasts the 2nd highest QB rating in history (1. Young).

He is the only QB to average over 4,000 yards per season. He's broken the 4,000 yard mark a record 9 times in his 11 year career and his streak of 6 consecutive season at 4,000 is also a record. With the first 9 games of his 12th season in the books, he is once again on pace to break the 4,000 mark. In fact, forget 4,000, he's on pace for 5,105 this year, which would break Dan Marino's single season record of 5,084. He's led the league in touchdowns 3 times and QB rating 3 times as well.

All those current standing don't seem to matter much either since if he continues to play at anything close to the pace he's been at since he came into the league, he should hold the top spot in every statistical category in the next 5-6 seasons.

His stats haven't all been for naught either. He already has the 4th most regular season wins by a QB (1. Favre, 2. Elway, 3. Marino), and his career .681 win percentage is also good for 4th best in history (1. Brady, 2. Staubach, 3. Montana). If you throw out his rookie year, (3-13), his teams have only won less than 12 games twice, (6-10 and 10-6).

Of course none of this has been lost on the voting media. I already mentioned the 3 MVP's, and 1 Super Bowl MVP. In addition he's been a 4 time all-pro and a 9 time pro-bowler.

Beyond the measurables, there's the eye test. Every week it feels like Peyton is at the top of every highlight show, throwing for another 300-400 yards and 2-5 touchdowns. In early season night games, his high powered offenses never seem to fail to put on an explosive show. Of course ask any fantasy football head out there and they'll surely be quick to inform you that no other QB has held down a top draft spot among QB's year in and year out like Peyton Manning has over the past 11 years.

So what does it all mean? I don't know about you, but when I add up all the available information, I'm left with only one conclusion. Peyton Manning is, quite simply, the greatest regular season quarterback the NFL has ever seen.

He is the ultimate student of the game. He works as hard as anyone ever. When you listen to a post game conference, the guy sounds like the biggest football nerd ever! He can, and does, recite every play, every down and distance, every player involved. He can tell you the time on the clock, the players on the field, the defensive package the other team was in. Heck, it feels like he can tell you the defensive package HIS team was in half the time! The guy is a machine. A love-able, big lug of a machine.

Did I mention he makes some pretty hilarious commercials? LOTS of hilarious commercials as a matter of fact.

So the ladies think he's adorable. Mothers love him. Fathers want their sons to approach the game like him. Ad execs want him to endorse their product. Journalists can't find any dirt on the guy. Players want to play with him, and coaches want to coach him.

There's no denying it. From January to the end of December, the guy has absolutely everything you can ask for in a franchise quarterback. And more so than anyone who's ever played the position.

In summary, he gets my vote for greatest Regular Season Quarterback in NFL history. He has truly been a gift to the game of football and to fans across the nation.

Part 2, The Curse, coming soon.

4th and 2

So this has probably been a long time coming. But after the online frenzy of explaining myself and my feelings about the Pats game last night, I decided it was time. The reality is I have so much to say. Why is Brady the Greatest QB of all time? Why is Moss the Greatest WR of all time? Why is Peyton Manning overrated? Why am I not a biased Boston fan? No really, I'm not! Did I mention I THINK I think Bobby Orr is the greatest hockey player ever? Or that I'm sure that Big Pappi was robbed of an MVP by ARod a couple years ago??

So without further ado, here are my thoughts about the NFL's annual November ratings baby, Pats vs. Colts, 2009. One of the better versions of this regular classic:



I live in Massachusetts. I can't turn anywhere today without hearing the same question. "What do you think of the call?"

My answer?

Which call?

I loved the call to go for it and was adamant that that was our only option at the time. I hated the call to not escort the Colts into the end zone on the very next play after we didn't get the 1st down (even though we actually did, as those of us with DVR know, oh well).

It's very simple. I said before the game that I would bet my life on Peyton to win a game if it's in his hands with the game on the line now. The choking Peyton is dead since he got that SB handed to him. It's inexplicable how winning a SB when playing like pure deuce could've had that kind of psychological effect on him, but he is an absolutely different player the last 2 years than he was the rest of his life. (I could elaborate more, of course, but I won't)

So here's the information I have to look at when making that decision:

1. I would bet my life on him scoring there. (subjective)

2. My starting CBs are Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite (objective... and horrifying)

3. 2 of the Colts 3 4th qtr drives went like this; 79 yards, ended in a TD, averaged 2 minutes. This is one of the fastest striking offenses we've seen since us in '07. The one they didn't score was a miscommunication on 1st down between Wayne and Peyton that resulted in a gift wrapped INT. Our D DID NOT stop them, we got lucky. Those two are always on the same page, there's no way that's happening again.

Clearly, if I punt him the ball with 2 mins on the clock AND a timeout, they would have to go about 60-70 yards BEST case scenario, worst is they have less to go with a good return. To me, punting means that I'm rolling the dice on what I feel is about a 20-30% chance of stopping Peyton, at best. Basically I'm probably putting my team in position to lose, but it's the fundamental play so the media won't kill me for it.

Keep in mind I've said all season that if my life was on the line, I would go with Peyton in that situation every time. I'm normally all about the fundamentals, as everyone who knows me knows. And it's fundamental to punt it there. But for Peyton and Tom, I make an exception. Last night, Peyton was on the other side.

My other option, (the only option in my opinion, as I said aloud at the time so I'm not just being a monday morning QB), was to go for it. Tom converts that 63.4% of the time, (awesome stat job by ESPN). If we get it, we win. Simple. If we DON'T get it, (and this is where Bill BLEW the game), you obviously let them score on the very first play and then Tom gets the ball back with about 1:56 (1:50 after kickoff) to get us about 50 yards into FG range. Again, worst case scenario. Less yards with a good kick return.

I even had the defense picked out in my head that I would run, although I didn't assume this from Bill. I was anxious to see what his "Ole!" defense looked like, (yes that is the name of a defensive package that would be in my playbook if I was a coach.. let's go to the film)

4 man rush, (this prevents the QB from scrambling and killing time or picking up yards that don't end in the end zone), man coverage on all eligible recievers, all leftover defenders (safeties or LBs) are cheating into the flats and preparing to cheat and take away all underneath patterns. ZERO over the top help. Everyone is instructed to do something that every DB will love to hear, cheat up and jump every move and go all out for the INT and UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES make a tackle. Get a pick, or get smoked for a TD. Simple.

So since they came out throwing on first down, (a curl pattern to Reggie Wayne), one of two things would've happened;

1. Peyton reads the D properly, which would've been impressive, and throws a TD. Which is wide open

2. Peyton doesn't read it, sticks with the "safe" play and throws the curl which 2 defenders are cheating on harder than Bill Clinton on a stranded island with the freakin Pussycat Dolls.

Worst case scenario the Colts score to take a 1 point lead with 1:56 left on the clock. Brady gets on the field with about 1:50 and no more than 50 yards to go to get in FG range.

If I asked you on sunday afternoon, would you rather:

A. Be down 1 with the ball in Tom's hands and 1:50 on the clock.

or

B. Be up 4 with the ball in Peyton's hands with 2 mins on the clock and Colts have a timeout and we have none?

Which one do you choose? Basically whatever you choose answers how you feel that situation should've been handled. If you choose A, then you go for it on fourth down (which it should be pointed out gives you BETTER odds than option A itself because we also had a chance to convert the 4th!!! Nevermind that 1:50 scenario!)

If you choose B then you punt.

I sure as hell wouldn't have chosen B before the game, and I didn't choose B after we didn't get the 3rd down.

As a coach I want the ball in the hands of MY guy, (the best QB ever), with the game on the line instead of the hands of THEIR guy, (also a top 10 all time QB playing at top 3 level right now).

So I loved the 4th down call.

Hated the fact that he made that call for all the wrong reasons. Easily the worst botch of Bill's career.