Showboating and Non-Touchdowns

Week one of the NFL season has come and gone and... it... was... magical.

I have no idea how much I'll need to express my football thoughts via blog this season, (AND I would like to clarify that I don't just blog about football... in theory), but to some degree yet to be seen... I AM BACK BABY!

This season I promise more entries, more full blown baffoony (albeit true) ramblings, more dot dot dots, more parenthesis, more inconsistent and un-checked grammar, and a lot more exclamation marks.

(That's right... marks... not points... although allegedly both work, but I prefer the classic.  And you thought I was joking about the dot dot dots. And yes I'm aware of the irony that I am complaining about 'mark' vs 'point' while failing to use the word 'ellipsis')

So today I have something quick to throw out, and it is this that has reunited us on this fine evening.

It's about the Calvin Johnson touchdown that wasn't this weekend.  You probably already know what happened, but if you don't... you should probably stop reading I guess.  It won't make sense to you.  For everyone else, here we go.

(jk... watch it here)

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For starters, I probably would've called it a touchdown if I were reviewing it... and I would've been wrong.

The rule is in place for a reason and too often we see guys catch touchdowns and drop it asap.  Usually it's way too close for comfort including 3-4 times in the past 3 years that we've seen guys drop the ball in celebration of breakaway touchdowns BEFORE crossing the goal line (I don't remember the college player who did it this weekend, but after DeSean Jackson... SERIOUSLY!), or dropping the ball, (like Calvin) as soon as they catch leaving me wondering (even upon review) "did he really catch (and CONTROL, by definition) it? or just play it off well?"

Remember this?  Seriously, one more yard DeSean!

I'm sick of it and so is the league.  Like Jay Cutler (who has an uncanny knack for looking like a hungover frat kid at all times... and often playing like one) said in the post game, the league comes in every pre-season and goes over the rules.  They clarified that that play would be called that way and they've been cracking down on it for years.

Yet we still saw guys doing that all over the league on opening weekend.

The fact is Calvin wanted to dangle the ball out in one hand because someone decided it was cool, and it caused him to fail to hang on to the ball through the catch.  He was showboating.  That's the real issue that I came away with in this whole debacle.  No showboating on that catch, a fundamental tucking away of the ball, and the entire football world isn't talking about the touchdown that wasn't.

(Now I want to clarify that I don't just condone showboating, I LOVE showboating!  I'll get to that in a minute.  Let's finish talking about THIS play first.)

Yes, the official had room to say that his "process of making the catch" had ended.  The reality is that Calvin was still trying to hold the ball and come through on his "process of coming to the ground", but dangled the ball in one hand while rolling to the ground, instead of tucking it away.  He was finishing getting spun to the ground, tried to get up, used the arm he was dangling the ball with to control himself on the ground so he could spin up in celebration, and because of the need to for that hand to strike the ground because of his getting spun to the ground, he UNINTENTIONALLY lost the ball.

Two hands... Good idea.

That is, by definition, not a catch.

It's a tough and debatable call.  I wouldn't have batted my eyes at calling it a catch.  But the referee made the right call, and a fair call, for the good of the league and what they're trying to stop.  They're trying to get guys to stop unnecessarily putting the officials in this position so that it will be more clear when a guy actually drops a ball, and when a guy was just trying to showboat because he HAD control.

So that's how I saw the play (after the thousands of reviews we've seen on every sports network the past couple days).  Calvin should've taken the ball into his body like they taught us in Pop Warner.  Instead he did the one handed, not tucking the ball away, dangling it like a loaf of bread, showboat.

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Which brings me back to me feelings on showboating.

I... love... showboating.  I love when a guy dances his way to the end zone.  I loved Billy "White Shoes" Johnson (2:30), the Ickey Shuffle, the Dirty Bird, everything Deion Sanders did.  I love OchoCinco.  I love trash talk.  I love taunting.  I loved the Ray Rice/Ed Reed/Sean Ellis/Bart Scott thing on Monday Night Football this week (which happens a couple times every season).  I loved when Brett Favre and Warren Sapp used to go at each other throughout entire games (Yes kids, Favre used to not only be tolerable, he was actually a BLAST to watch and almost impossible to dislike.  No seriously, I swear!)  I love that going out of your way to dunk on a guy, rather than taking a simple lay-in, can irreversibly shift the balance of power in your conference by letting the former big dogs know that their one advantage (physicality) is now yours  (Rondo against the Pistons).  I love that some guys (Jordan (1:00 mark), Bird, Gary Payton, OchoCinco, Joe Namath, Ray Lewis, Reggie Miller, Charles Barkley, Favre in his day, etc... bonus Jordan - Barkley clip) absolutely thrive when the mental aspect of taunting and trash talking is brought into the game.  I also love that some guys (think: LeBron?) absolutely cannot handle it when someone is threatening to not only beat them, but embarrass them.

Now don't get me wrong, I also feel there needs to be respect.  And I feel the two can completely coexist.

A great example of this took place in the Gold Medal game for the US against Turkey in the FIBA World Championships on Sunday.  We had the game in hand, under 2 mins to go.  Turkey was experiencing a moment.  They were receiving an on court standing ovation from the home crowd for a valiant effort throughout the tournament and in that final game.  Turkey and their fans were admitting defeat to the US despite the remaining time on the clock, and basically bowing out gracefully.

The US began their next possession by dribbling out the clock and allowing the Turkey players to acknowledge their fans and countrymen, but then as the shot clock wound down, instead of chucking up a simple jump shot, the PG (sorry, not sure who, I want to say Russell Westbrook) tossed an alley-oop to Andre Iguodala, who jammed a hard two handed dunk and then bounced away.

There were some happy moments

I got a little nervous.

I saw the play developing and hoped they wouldn't go for the oop.  I mean, I'm pretty sure the rest of the world already hates us enough as it is.  We're the Yankees/Patriots/Heat/FillInTheBlank of world sports.

After it happened, I just hoped that was the last of it.  To the credit of the US players, it was.  They flirted with disrespect, yes, but instead stayed very respectful and classy in their blowout of Turkey.  This was a perfect example of a situation that I often would say, "if you don't like it, stop it", but understanding the situation and having respect for your opponent would dictate that this was not the time.  I'm glad the US players grasped that and kept it to a minimum.

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So yes, showboating has it's time and place in my mind, but sports are two things fundamentally.

1. They are fun.

2. They are entertaining.

Yeah, I like when guys exhibit both of those elements!  I like to see that a guy is having fun!  I also like for guys to try to entertain me since that's exactly what I'm tuning in for!

That being said, I think there are some unwritten rules.

Aaaaand maybe someday I'll sort them all out and post them.  For now, there's just one...

Whatever you do, you BETTER be able to back it up.

Wanna slow down and show us the football?  You better not get caught from behind. (Leon Lett)

Wanna dunk or shoot a pull up 3 when you could probably get a good look at a lay-up?  You better score.

Wanna talk trash to the media?  You better bring it on gameday.

Wanna point to the ground in front of you and demand that a corner stand there and try to guard you?  You better be un-guardable. (OchoCinco)

And do you wanna dangle the ball in one hand instead of tucking it away when catching a game winning touchdown?  Well then you better not let go of that dang ball until you're handing it to a kid in the stands...

Ideally while autographing that ball with the sharpie you had tucked in your sock.

Legend

And THAT, my friends, is how you showboat.

Super Bowl XLIV

In the wake of Sunday night’s Super Bowl a really strange phenomena is taking place here in the great northeast. People everywhere are celebrating as if our beloved Patriots had just won the Super Bowl (almost). I know the entire non-Indiana country was rooting for the Saints, so I can’t be absolutely sure what the feeling is like outside of Massachusetts, but I’m pretty sure it’s a little different than here.

Why are Patriot faithful taking such delight in the events that unfolded in Sunday night? Does it go beyond a simple rivalry?

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Among the media’s endless pursuits to come up with interesting Super Bowl side-plots, one that gained increasing attention as the game drew near (and admittedly the one that I would’ve focused on if I were an actual writer) was that of Peyton Manning’s legacy. I think the majority of people who actually pay attention to football from historical standpoint and look beyond the naked eye test share the general acceptance that there are some major stains on Peyton Manning’s “Greatest of All Time” resume. Namely, his atrocious playoff history and knack for coming up smaller and smaller as the moments get bigger and bigger.

As I wrote a few months ago, I suspected that by having Super Bowl XLI handed to him Peyton had finally gotten the proverbial monkey off his back and could possibly be a forever changed man. I suspected (feared, speaking as a Patriots fan) that by getting that ring, he had nothing left to prove and no more reason to fear the big moments that had haunted him for seemingly his whole life. I looked at the last two playoffs in which he went 0-2 and saw that his offense in each game put up the highest point totals they ever had in playoff losses. I saw a guy who looked different late in games in the regular season. I had convinced myself, mostly out of fear, that he had flipped the switch. That it would no longer be Peyton who let the Colts down in big games.

Sure I should’ve pointed out the obvious to myself; firstly that the regular season had never been his issue. Until that Jets game a couple weeks ago, the best game of Peyton’s career had been a Monday Night game in October against Tampa Bay, which, had it happened in the playoffs, might have been one of the greatest games of all time. But it didn’t. It happened in October. And of course I should’ve put more emphasis on the fact that Colts played NOBODY this season (best win against a first round eliminated Patriots team at home; a game the Pats should’ve won anyway). And there’s no way I should’ve accepted first game playoff losses to non-Super Bowl teams the last two playoffs as acceptable performances from a clutch assassin. As usual, sports hindsight makes me feel silly.

But there were some good things to look at on the other side of the coin as well. My fear was fueled and justified by over-excusing Peyton’s continuing playoff shortcomings.

The first of those playoff losses in the Post-XLI era was the first season that Marvin Harrison became a sudden non-factor and was excused by me primarily with the “I don’t think the Colts passing game had adjusted to the passing of the torch to Reggie Wayne and the young guys” logic.

The second playoff loss I excused as- - ok well actually I don’t even know how I excused that second one. I have no idea how I overlooked the Colts offense scoring only 17 points and zero of them in the 4th quarter and overtime. This was a typical Peyton Manning playoff game! How did I miss this!? It was just last season! Once again, this why I don’t gamble.

I think I got caught up in the regular season Peyton just like I see everyone else doing. I think maybe I let myself be a little influenced by my Colts-fan roommate from Indiana. But most of all, I think I might have just been starting to feel bad for Peyton.

I think for some weird reason I wanted to believe that a change had happened in Payton. I wanted his career to make some sense to me. I am obsessed with making sense of what I see in sports. The dichotomy that is Peyton Manning’s legacy makes no sense to me. How someone can play at the highest level we’ve ever seen the game played for the majority of the year, only to go on to play it at a level that can barely be described as average in the playoffs and big games, is just too drastic of a change for my brain to comprehend. Is his legacy really as simple as… “Choker”. Have we ever seen a player like this? At this level? What do we do with him on the all-time list? What do we make of his otherworldly stats and regular season performances year in and year out?

Maybe it wasn’t so much about feeling bad for Peyton as it was just my need for it to make more sense to me. I love sports. I’ve talked in this space about what being a true fan of the game means to me. I love the history of it. I love the legends of the game. I love the winning and losing. I love the complicated simplicity of it. Sure there’s a lot to look when evaluating players. Sure the arguments can be endless with your buddies debating things like; Brady or Montana, Bird or Magic, LeBron or Kobe, Would Jim Brown be as dominant in today’s NFL, Offense or Defense, Jessica Alba or Jessica Biel- - I mean- - well you get my point. And sure there’s always going to be disagreements on those things. But we always have the actual games. Eventually every opinion (predictive) gets proven one way or another. Or rather, eventually you have all the evidence needed to form your final verdict.

In the week leading up to Super Bowl XLIV I was talking with a friend about some of the complicated things in life and I thought that this was exactly why I love sports. The real life stuff we talked about, we may never know the truth to. In sports, I knew that in a couple days I would know for a fact whether or not Peyton had reached another level. Whether he had put the choking behind him. I would have proof unfold right before my eyes of what the story of Peyton’s career is to this point.

I want to appreciate history as it’s unfolding. I feel like a lot of fans are so critical and so scarred to lose their legends that they have a hard time putting what we’re seeing in perspective. Other fans go completely the other way and say things like, “I already have LeBron as the greatest small forward ever”. (That would be a quote from Jeff Van Gundy last season AFTER Mark Jackson pointing out that Larry Bird played SF) I want to have a grasp of what I’m seeing and appreciate it for what it is as it happens.

I am not a Peyton Manning fan. (Sorry about that picture to the left.. but.. not really. I never claimed to be mature) I don’t want him to pass Montana, Brady, Elway or anyone else that may still be ahead of him on the all time list. However, if it’s going to happen, I want to appreciate getting to be around to see it. My love for football, my love for sports, transcends my biases and my love for certain players and teams. Don’t get me wrong, I am crushed each and every time my team fails, or a guy like Peyton or Kobe pass one of my guys on the list. But I appreciate the opportunity to see it happen. I appreciate what they’re accomplishing. I appreciate the unfolding of a new legend and being able to be there for it.

This is why, more than anything, I may have found myself sub-consciously wanting Peyton to have reached another level. I already have witnessed the tail end of Elway’s career and the entire career of Brady (playing for my team, no less). To have witnessed the entire career of a 3rd guy who is one of the top 4 greatest modern era QB’s to ever strap a helmet on? Well that’s something I would have an appreciation for.

However, I am not a Peyton Manning fan. (And even more, I am a Tom Brady fan... and no these two things are not mutually exclusive) I wasn’t sure what I wanted to happen in that game, but with 3 and a half minutes left I found out for sure. When Tracy Porter jumped that curl and Peyton hit him in the numbers, I think I pulled 5 muscles exploding off the couch in celebration (it was kinda like this, only I then ran around the house like a maniac in stunned celebration).

See, I knew exactly what I was watching. I had tweeted moments earlier, “Next 5 minutes could be pivotal to Peyton's legacy. History unfolding right now.” I wasn’t sure what to expect, but if my suspicions about Peyton being a new man were correct, the Colts would march down and score and probably go on to win the game. I even said out loud after the Saints touchdown that there would probably be 3 more scores in the game. Even after the pick-6, I wasn’t completely sure what Peyton was proving. Greatness, or… other?


My next tweet, “No comment. Except that this game is not over yet.” I was afraid to move, afraid to think, afraid to sit back down (I didn’t). I was completely captivated by what was unfolding right before all of our eyes. The single biggest, most important, most microcosm-istic (new word, deal with it) moments of the career of one of the legends of the game were happening on live television in front of the largest audience in television history! This was a moment.

Well, with the next Colts possession it quickly became painfully obvious that my last tweet was wrong. This game was over. Peyton was painfully rattled. He was spraying footballs all over the field, with some success even, but it looked like chaos. No coolness, no calm, no confidence. Just an overwhelming sense of impending doom. This was not the cool assassin who terrified me as a Pats fan in Week 10. Even as they marched to the goal line I knew there was no way Peyton had 2 scores in him. Not an ounce of fear in me. I had seen this guy before. This was the old Payton. That “new” Peyton was a hoax. A figment of my imagination. This was the real Peyton, and he was not a threat to the Saints.

On first and goal with 1:33 on the clock, Peyton dropped back and I couldn’t even keep it in as I said out loud, “Look how flustered he is! He’s gonna do it again!” Sure enough, as the words were coming out of my mouth Peyton was drilling the ball into the hands of the Saints Jabari Greer for what would’ve been game ending INT, if it were for an incredibly heads up offensive pass interference by rookie Pierre Garcon who pushed Greer’s leg out of bounds making the interception incomplete.

A few incompletions later Drew Brees took a snap from the victory formation and it was all over. 31-17 Saints.

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So why have New Englanders been celebrating as if it were us who won the Super Bowl?

I think it goes back to a post I put up a couple months ago about what it means to be a True Fan. As Patriots fans, we love the fact that one of the top 2 all time QB’s is our guy. And we realized that someone was getting dangerously close to that zone. We realized that a 2 score, 5 minute comeback to win the Super Bowl, may have been all the ammo Peyton needed to catch and- - gulp- - God forbid, arguably pass Tom Brady on the all time list. When Peyton crumbled once again in his biggest fashion yet, and on the biggest stage possible, we knew that meant Tom had maintained his grip on the top spot. We knew that discussion was over for now.

So for us, as Brady fans, it was like a win. Because on that great big scoreboard of all time, we knew Peyton was in position to put up some huge points. Possibly enough to be in striking distance of our guy. And instead, he got shut out. Our lead was safe and as big as ever. For another season, we have the highest score.


We know it won’t last forever. That’s another great thing about sports. Everyone gets passed. We get to see new legends come and go right before our eyes. Every so often we get the privilege, as sports fans, of seeing someone come along and do it better than it’s ever been done before. It’s one of the things that keeps us coming back.

We know Brady won’t always be the greatest, but for right now he still is. So yeah, it was like we won something.

Now if only he can come back strong next year and actually win the Super Bowl, well, then you’ll see a real celebration here in New England. Again.

Kickers Get the Boot and My Super Bowl Preview

Man, I wish I had more time to capture all my thoughts about these playoffs as they went on. For starters, we can't ignore the elephant in the room. I am 2-8. This is why gambling is a terrible idea. Over the past decade I've been pretty consistent at picking outcomes in the NFL playoffs. This year?

The year I start this blog...

2-8

Of course, that figures. Thank the Lord I started a blog instead of going to Vegas.

I would like to send “Thank You's” to Karlos Dansby, Bill Belichick's ego, Adrian Peterson's hands, Shayne Graham's playoff kicking ability, Nate Kaeding's playoff kicking ability, Jay Feely's playoff choking--

Actually-- what I’m getting at is a big, fat “Thank You” to all field goal kickers for actually transforming themselves into the most important position in football due to the fact that apparently there is only about 3 or 4 of them on the entire planet who can both; kick field goals AND perform under pressure.

I touched on this issue briefly in my Round 2 Preview (at the bottom of the Cowboys-Vikings preview, right before picking the Cowboys because of the Favre Factor. I hate my life). I had no idea that these playoffs would push me completely and utterly over the edge. I submit my official idea:

No more field goals in pro football.

No, seriously!

Stop laughing!

Hear me out. I KNOWWWW it will never happen. But, that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t! Bear with me. What do field goals bring to the table? Seriously? I’m a huge fan of playing smashmouth, field position football. Take the points. Make an opponent earn everything they get. Always prolong the game. All that good stuff. And I know that, as currently constructed, field goal kicking is a large part of that.

But let’s think about what the game would be like if there were no Field Goal option on 4th down.

Every team views a new set of downs as 3 plays to pick up a first down. Some of the gutsier head coaches (Bill Belichick, Jack Del Rio, Peyton Manning) have started to be a little more liberal with their definitions of “4 down territory”, but the majority of the time a team is expected to run 3 plays and get the 1st or “3 and out”. This might shock some of you, but I’m not going to go overboard getting into the statistics that tell us things like; you have a 50/50 chance of converting 4th and short (I’m starting to get the hang of this being a blog, not a column, besides there are plenty of stat geeks who have blogs and websites designated to showing us those stats). Instead, just think about what the game would look like if teams went into every 1st down with the thought process that we either use all 4 plays to get the 1st, or punt. Are you telling me offenses wouldn’t be opened up a little? Teams wouldn’t start picking up that first down a little more?

It would depend on the individual coach and the team he has to work with, but I’m assuming most teams would view the opponents 40-25 yard lines as the definitive “4 down territory” at any point in the game. With that line being moved back further and further depending on how big of a deficit they are playing with and how late in the game they are. Of course, teams with the Brady/Manning/Breeses of the world would be going for it at the 50 on an almost regular basis.

Ok so maybe this is starting to sound exciting, but why the change? You’re wondering what’s wrong with the way it is now. The way it’s always been. Why screw with tradition?

Well I know any kickers out there reading this aren’t going to like what I have to say, but I’m just being honest. I love the kickers. Great guys. Every kicker I’ve ever played with was a really fun guy to be around. They’re always good for moral support, which makes perfect sense because who understands the feeling of failure more than a kicker. They’re always good for remembering the little things on away games because, well, they have so much free time while everyone else is lifting weights and practicing. Kickers are awesome.

But they aren’t football players. They don’t go out and bleed and claw and fight side by side with 10 other guys throughout the game. They don’t have to understand what all those teammates are doing and work together to keep the machine running. They sit around and wait for their 1-6 plays a game. And what are those plays like? Oh, only the biggest plays of the game. And unlike every other play in football, these plays depend almost entirely on one guy… the kicker.

(Yes the holder and long snapper, otherwise useless players, are big parts of a FG as well. But the holder is usually either the punter, or any actual player like a QB. And the long snapper is used on both punts and FG’s, however his margin for error is much greater in the punting game than his tiny margin for error in the FG game, thus greatly reducing the risk of the outcome of a game being greatly affected by a player who barely plays (the punter is standing instead of crouching, and he can move around and adjust to the catch, probably 10 times the target for the snap)

In these playoff games we saw a ridiculous amount of games be decided, or greatly swung, by guys who didn’t even break a sweat or need showers after the battle. In round one we saw career 85% kicker (Shayne Graham) who was 1 for 1 in his only previous playoff game and had only missed 5 kicks all season go 0-2 on chippies that drastically changed the momentum and game-plan of the game and basically cost a team (Bengals), who otherwise had arguably outplayed their opponent (Jets), the win. In the same round we see a team get the league leader in FG% (Neil Rackers) for the regular season into position to hit a game winner that he misses brutally (was there any doubt he was going to miss that kick?), in OT the Packers win the coin toss and if it’s not for a ridiculous turn of events and funny bounces on one fateful second down play, Green Bay probably would have won that game. A game that Arizona had already earned a win in regulation by getting their guy into range.

(And no you cannot play the, “yeah well that’s their fault if they know he’s not clutch” card on Rackers because it doesn’t apply to Graham or any of the other guys here except Kaeding, who has his own set of circumstances. Speaking of Kaeding...)

In Round 2 we see Rackers go 0 for 1 in the Cardinals loss, but the real story was clearly Nate Keading redefining the definition of the word “choke” as it applies to sports. Kaeding is a career 87% kicker who had missed all of 3 kicks this season en route to hitting 92%. He was named to the Pro Bowl, being the top kicker in the AFC. He was drafted – gulp – as the 2nd pick in the 3rd round of the ’04 draft by San Diego. He’s supposed to be money!!! However, the guy simply cannot kick under playoff pressure. It’s as simple as that. Of course, the poor Chargers had no way of knowing this until he proved it this year. Kickers don’t get many opportunities to make plays. They don’t get to work through this stuff. They either have it, or they don’t. In Kaeding’s case, he doesn’t. But we needed this 0-3 performance to prove it to us. Costing San Diego the win. Back to back weeks the Jets get wins against teams who were brutally let down by their kickers. 0-5 combined. A total of 5 plays. 2 guys who played a total of 5 combined plays (not counting extra points) determined, or at least greatly affected the outcome of 2 straight games, and the entire landscape of this year’s playoffs.

We also saw Jay Feely, a guy who is generally above average under pressure in my opinion; miss a crucial kick for the Jets against the Colts. And Garrett Hartley (who finished the season 17 spots behind Kaeding and 21 behind Rackers in FG% this season) nail a game winner for the Saints.

Overall FG kickers were just above 50% during the playoffs this year. Considering that 80% ranks you around 25th in the regular season, this is an unbelievable number.

So with so many games and outcomes being so greatly affected by these scrawny guys who can’t run, tackle or block, I can’t help but wonder—no actually—cry out, that the best teams are not always winning! More to the point, the teams PLAYING the best on the given day are not winning!

I know you can sit back and say, “Well that’s why they play the game”, and all that stuff. But wouldn’t it be cool if the team that plays the best, executes the best, and IS the best on game day, actually won!? Instead of having that win denied them by a guy who doesn’t even play.

So back to the idea: I submit that field goal kicking has inepted itself into the role of “Most Important Position” in football. I submit that these guys are not accurate indicators of the team and that there is no way for a team to know exactly what they have in a kicker because of the small sample’s of his performance. I submit that we abolish field goal kicking and force a team to score actual touchdowns. Actually score your own points to win.

It still comes down to field position, tight defense, efficient and/or high powered offense. All those things are just as much in play as before. No more, no less really. Defensive struggles that were once decided by a FG or two, are now decided by which team gets into the end zone. Is that so much different? Offensive shootouts that are decided (one way or another) by a Neil Rackers-esque field goal would now need to be decided by which offense is explosive enough to score the last touchdown. Instead of getting into range and hoping their guy does his job and then when he doesn’t the other team gets in range and wouldn’t you know… their guy hits it. That’s a total crapshoot. The touchdown is legit. You can’t argue with a touchdown.

Finishing touches on the proposal: For extra points there are several ways to handle it. Kickers are paid relatively nothing and I would have no problem with keeping them on the roster with the sole job of kicking extra points. However, I would RATHER see a more creative and exciting system put in place.

The first (less exciting) option: Take the ball on the 1 for 1 point or the 2 or 5 for 2 points.

The second (more exciting) option: An expansion on the first option. Take the ball on the 1 for 1, or take the ball on any yard line you want in increments of 5 and going up 1 point for each increment. So the 20 would be worth 5 points! You think that’s too much? I say if a team is ballsy enough to say, “Man up, we’re taking one shot from the 20, stop us!”, and then gets it done! They deserve the points! That’s the whole idea! We can’t eliminate one play devastation. Hail Mary’s, Hook and Ladders, turnovers or kicks returned for game winning touchdowns, these are all things that make football great. They’re exciting. Sure they can be fluky, but that’s what makes sports great isn’t it? And if the game is going to end on a fluky, sudden death type of play, I want it to be made by the actual players. I want it to be our offense vs. your defense. Not our scrawny guy who hasn’t played in the actual game, going out against basically only himself since it’s almost impossible to block a kick. That just doesn’t feel right. I say put the game in the hands of the actual players.


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Colts vs. Saints
Super Bowl


I’m sorry, but I have to make a pick. I should probably consider ceasing to pick the outcomes of games in the future. These playoffs may have scarred me for life. But, I need to finish it out. I’m not a quitter.

I’m not going to go super far into analyzing this game. I’ve already written too much in this entry as it is (so much for grasping the blog vs. column concept… maybe next time).

If I were to really delve into this game, given the stuff I’ve already written about in this space it would only make sense that I explore it from the “What affect do the various possible outcomes have on Peyton Manning’s legacy” angle. I would love to delve into that, and honestly I will after the game. I will acknowledge that he is the best QB in the game right now. And Brees is possibly second. And this game will either confirm or deny that. Brady simply did not recover this year, and although I feel that Belichick is more to blame than Brady himself for not hiring an offense coordinator to help Brady out (no, that QB coach we have is NOT an offensive coordinator), you still can’t look at Brady’s season, and particularly the playoff game without admitting that he's not the same Tom Brady. Very sad. Come ooooooon 2010 season!

So I also have to acknowledge that should Peyton win, and more importantly, play well, he could very well enter the hallowed Montana/Brady zone among the “GreatEST QB’s of all-time”. I’m not saying he WILL be there. I’m saying it’s possible and I will need to analyze how I feel about all of that at a later time.

I don’t want to go there. I want the old Peyton back. I want 4-5 interceptions tomorrow night, with a couple of them being just brutal. This new Peyton is wearing me out. On top of all the parody/not parody crap we have going on the NFL making it impossible to figure things out, we now have a clutch, assassin-like Peyton Manning?!?!?! Sca-REWWW that! I’m all set.

Conversely, I just love Drew Brees. I’ve always been a fan, and the more I see of him the more I love him. He seems like the ultimate teammate. Hands down. I actually think, from my couch at home, he looks like the greatest teammate we may have ever seen at the QB position. I’ve never seen a guy carry so much good natured influence and motivation for an entire 53-man roster. Offense, defense, special teams. Drew looks and acts and fits in as if he plays everywhere. And the guys have that respect for him. Not just respect, but also camaraderie. They all seem to genuinely love him and want to run through walls for him. With Peyton, there's the respect, but I don’t see a love. He barks at them when things don’t go well. He takes all the credit when things do go well. Maybe the best way to describe it is a healthy fear. They respect him without a doubt. And they certainly respect what he can do for them and where he can take them. But, do they love him?

From my couch, it doesn’t look anything like what has been going on in New Orleans with Brees the past few years, or even like when he was in San Diego. I love this guy and would love to see him lead them and the Katrina-stricken city of New Orleans and the sad, sad franchise of the Saints to a Super Bowl win.

However, the Colts have Peyton Manning. He's the king of the hill right now. If he does what he does, they’re simply the best team this year. I didn’t think they would suddenly translate that to post-season football, but they have. I expect an absolute shootout between two extremely similar teams. I expect to be crushed by a Super Bowl featuring minimal defense. And I expect Peyton Manning to finally earn a Super Bowl ring.

Colts 41-34

p.s. You can’t accuse me of reverse jinxing here because I picked the Colts over the smashmouth Ravens in the 2nd Round and they came through. And then when I did fall for the smashmouth team (inevitable that I would take either the Jets or Ravens in back to back weeks against a Peyton Manning, finesse offense), I was wrong. So my picks have proven to be useless against the Colts this season. Maybe THEY, and not the Saints, are truly the Team of Destiny? I mean, they seem to be the only team immune to the Rocketship Curse. So no, there’s no reverse jinxing going on here.

No way would I try that.

Right?

NFL Round 2 Last Minute Preview

I was hoping to have my recap of last week’s games (specifically my Patriots) done by now, but alas, I have failed.

Soooo... I didn’t want to send you into this weekend without pumping out a quick preview and some picks. So let’s take a look at another awesome foursome of playoff games:

(Obviously if you make any bets based on my picks… you are dumb… and soon to be broke.)

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I can’t believe how excited I am for all of this years’ playoff games. Parody in the NFL is at an all-time high. Going into last week there were only 2 of 12 playoff teams that I didn’t feel were championship material… they both advanced. Other than those two teams, one of which now looks very capable of winning it all, every other team in the playoffs, and a couple who didn’t even make the playoffs, I could easily see winning it all. And I’m not even just saying that to excuse my going 1-3 last weekend. Really, I’m not.

But, we’re not here to talk about the past.

(Real quick: I haven’t read “Juiced” and probably never will, but I believe everything I’ve heard from Jose Canseco. I will admit that this subject isn’t in my wheelhouse, but I just have some things to throw on the record here.

1. If PED’s weren’t against the rules in the 90’s, then why don’t these guys just own up and say they did them! If you’re in a career where your physical abilities dictate your professional success entirely, and because of advances in science that everyone around you is taking advantage of your natural skill set is not going to be enough to keep up with the Joneses, and there are no authorities telling you that you can’t and certainly no one testing or checking to make sure you aren’t… why WOULDN’T you try them out?! Wouldn’t that actually be something of a common sense decision? Ok I’m literally asking I guess. Something isn’t making sense to me here. The only real argument I’ve heard is that “it’s cheating” or “it’s not in the spirit of the game”. First of all, if it’s not against the rules, it’s not cheating. This is professional sports. This isn’t pickup ball with some friends. This is a billion dollar industry. And that is actually my response to the “it’s not in the spirit of the game” argument as well. Is that supposed to stop guys from doing something to get an edge, earn a few more millions, and do it all without getting in trouble for breaking the rules? If that’s really the best argument then I’m tempted to tell baseball fans that it’s time to grow up. Maybe I’m way off base here.

2. I believe Canseco. ABSOLUTELY I do. I’m the ultimate “innocent until proven guilty” guy. But, for Jose to say so much about so much with so much description of what happened in full believable detail, and for so many of the guys he talked about to have either admitted to or been named on a list of guys who have used PED’s— AND for McGuire to now come out and basically say it’s all true EXCEPT the part about Jose doing it with him—well I’m just having a hard time with that. I bought Jose’s story from the start and continue to.)

OK, onto the picks:

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Cardinals @ Saints
Saturday 4:30pm FOX

In the intro to my Round 1 Preview I talked about how there were 3 teams that I felt played RSF (Regular Season Football) and for various reasons, most of which can be summed up by the word “soft”, none of those 3 top teams would win the Super Bowl this year. The Saints were one of those teams. I love Drew Brees. I always thought San Diego should’ve just kept him and used the Philip Rivers pick on another position. I’ve got no real issues with Brees. He’s only played 2 playoff games and, although he’s 0-2, he played fairly well in both of them. This is the best team he’s ever had and it’s the best defensive team he’s had while in New Orleans by faaaaaaar. The Saints offense has been explosive the past couple years and especially this year with Brees at the helm. They went 13-0 before dropping their last 3 games of the season. On paper they’ve built quite a resume this season and if we were going just by highlight films, they would probably be the Super Bowl Champs already. However, I’m struggling to be impressed with their season on the whole.

They only racked up 3 wins against playoff teams, 2 of those at home. The most impressive was against a struggling New England team. The other two were in the first 4 weeks of the season against the Eagles, without McNabb, and a 24-10 win against the Jets at home in week 4 at the front end of a 7 game stretch that saw the Jets go 1-6. Outside of those wins they’ve beaten, from week 1: Detroit, Buffalo, Miami, Giants (at home), Atlanta (twice by 11 combined points), Carolina (30-20 at home, 1-1 against the Panthers this season), St. Louis (by 5), Tampa Bay (blew them out in week 11, lost in OT in week 16).

This Saints team has a soft defense, a finesse offense, and hasn’t played anyone since a struggling Patriots team in week 12, and nobody outside of that all season, for all intents and purposes.

It’s clear that I’m not sold on the Saints.

The Cardinals, however, have me hooked.

In my preview of the Packers-Cardinals game last week I wrote, “I could see either of these teams catching fire and cruising all the way to the Super Bowl. Easily. The Cardinals also have a defense that is capable of doing everything and really catching fire… And we already know how explosive the Cards offense can be when healthy and clicking.” Well, the Cardinals offense was clicking and they pulled out the win in a shootout against the Packers. I actually was impressed by the Cardinals defense that let up 45 to the Packers. The Packers have an excellent offense and the ‘Cards really didn’t match up well. They had pressure on Rodgers for a large portion of that game and they ended up getting the game winning sack/turnover/touchdown trifecta to close it out in OT. Basically, they showed me everything I was afraid they would when I picked the Packers. They showed me everything I needed to see to label them “Super Bowl material”.

I’m rolling with Kurt Warner, (who I will always maintain has had an overrated career, but is still an awesome player with a chance to live up to his overrated legacy the more times he keeps producing like this in the playoffs), and that stud-laden offense over Brees and his boys.

The Saints go into most games looking to shoot it out, but I think even if they get their wish today, be careful what you wish for.

Cardinals 31-24


Ravens @ Colts
Saturday 8:15pm CBS

The second of my threesome of RSF teams (Colts) face off against a true, textbook SSF (Second Season Football) team (Ravens). So it should be obvious who I’m picking here.

The Colts.

I know it doesn’t fit my usual playoff formula, but here’s what I’m hung up on: The Ravens ALWAYS sucker me into thinking they’ll beat the Colts. I consistently buy the theory that the Ravens D will bother Peyton more than the Colts D can stop the Ravens running game. I even factor in some turnovers, thinking that defense will confuse Manning a bit the way he always used to get flustered against the Pats. Well, it never pans out. Manning usually hangs a solid 20+ points on the Ravens. And THAT was the old Peyton.

I’ve said all year that this was a new version of Peyton. It started after winning the Super Bowl in ’06 and has grown since. Peyton has seemed to morph into a full blown assassin. The question is yet to be answered though, is this version of Peyton reality, or a hoax?

Only time will tell. These Colts live and die on the arm and vision of Peyton Manning as much as ever. I’m going with him, possibly against my better judgement, being over his postseason choking enough to get a win over this Ravens team.

This game could really go in absolutely any direction and I wouldn’t be shocked, easily more than any of the other three games this weekend. Blowout Colts, close game, blowout Ravens similar to last week against the Pats. But I think Peyton will get it done and also that the Colts D opportunistic D will make just enough plays against the Ravens offense to make life difficult for Joe Flacco.

Wait, haven’t I heard this theory somewhere before?? I hate myself.

Colts 27-17


Dallas @ Minnesota
Sunday 1pm FOX


Aaaaaand the 3rd team of my RSF threesome makes it’s postseason debut! Against my pre-playoff Super Bowl team from the NFC, no less! This is awesome. I’m so pumped for this game. It also happens to be the closest game of the weekend. The consensus throughout the sports world seems to be that this game is as close as it gets. I’m sticking with my ‘Boys and not hesitating on it.

These teams seem very similar at first glance. Both have talented defenses that rush the passer extremely well, both have very balanced running attacks with depth at the RB position, both have tons of weapons for the QB to throw to and, of course, both have very good QB’s.

So how are they different, you ask?

The Vikings are not what they’re supposed to be. By nature, the Vikings are a running team. They have an excellent run blocking offensive line. They signed the best LG in football, Steve Hutchinson, to play between Pro Bowlers LT Bryant “Mount” McKinnie and C Matt Birk. They followed that by drafting Adrian Peterson, allowing them to move starting RB Chester Taylor on to the 3rd down role. In both of Peterson’s first two seasons the Vikings finished in the top 5 in the NFL in rushing, while staying down at 32nd and 28th in pass attempts. They were designed to be the perfect power running team with a nice cast of deep threat, quick strike receivers that can make you pay a couple times a game when teams are loading up against the run. They paired that with a fierce, physical defense that was dominant against the run. They were simply lacking a QB who could manage the game and safely take advantage of those few deep opportunities each game.

Then they got their missing piece… Brett Favre.

In this, Peterson’s 3rd year in the league, a time you may expect a guy to have things figured out and be poised to hit full stride in the league, the Vikings came into the season with a lot of promise. Then a little thing I would like to call “The Favre Factor” struck. This year they leaped up to 12th in the league in pass attempts and dropped to 13th in rushing yards. Intentionally or not, they changed their entire identity. They are now a team that doesn’t excel in the areas it was meant to excel, but instead relies on the arm of Brett Favre and the passing game. So much so that they have lately seemed to be unable to switch gears and grind out tough yardage when necessary.

Conversely the Cowboys are what they are. They have excellent balance on offense. In Tony Romo, they don’t have a quarterback who is bigger than the system. When they pass they have deep threats (Miles Austin), the possession guy (Patrick Crayton), the X-factor guy (Roy Williams), and a dominant tight end who can do everything in the passing game (Jason Witten). In the running game they have a solid offensive line and a threesome of RB’s who, combined, make them extremely versatile and effective in their attack. All three are excellent receivers out of the backfield, Marion Barber can do everything, but is especially effective at grinding out tough yards, Felix Jones is an absolute home run threat every time he’s on the field, and Tashard Choice gives them a really well rounded guy who can come off the bench and fill in however needed.

They mix all that in perfectly. Not too much run, not too much pass. They just take what’s the defense gives them and tries to do what they do well. Most balanced offense left in the playoffs.

On defense they’re simply the best defense in the NFC. As long as DeMarcus Ware is healthy they have as good a pass rush as any team in the league, the LB’s are playing well as a unit, and the secondary has really surprised me this year. And although I’m not huge on Wade Phillips as a head coach, he can sure coach defense.

So, the closest consensus closest game of the playoffs happens to be one of the few games that I’m not struggling with very much. I’m sticking with my Super Bowl pick.

(I do acknowledge how close it is, so much so that whichever team wins goes to the Super Bowl in my opinion.)

(And as usual, I'm not struggling with this pick, so that means you should take the Vikings. Also I'm dreading this game coming down to FG's, since that's the one weakness of the Cowboys. I hate kicking. I think it should be removed from football. I'm going to write a post about this soon.)

Cowboys 27-21



Jets @ Chargers
Sunday 4:30pm CBS

Mark Sanchez is 1-0 in his rookie season in playoff games. I want to be very clear: I like Mark Sanchez. I think he's going to have a very good career. And I know this might sound asinine, but if he were the Vikings QB I would pick them to win the Super Bowl. (No I'm not saying he's better than Favre. It's a chemistry thing)

I just don't think he's there yet. The Jets were able to survive last week because the Bengals repeatedly killed themselves and that allowed the Jets to control the ball and the clock and only have to ask for 15 throws from Sanchez. Most of those throws were dumpoffs, screens and a couple misdirection rollout plays. The Chargers have a quite possibly the hottest run defense going right now. I can't imagine the Jets having the kind of success they had last week on the ground which will force them to go to the air this week, unlike last week. The Jets are built to be front runners and today I don't see them having that luxury.

The Chargers are loaded offensively. LaDanian, despite looking washed up for about 2 straight seasons, looked to sort of regain some of his old burst. I'm wondering if he realizes that this is pretty much his last chance to leave it all on the field and comes out and plays inspired football in these playoffs? I've never felt that he was a guy who really grasped the concept of winning vs. racking up stats. When he sat out against the Patriots while Philip Rivers limped through the game on a torn ACL, I felt that was a microcosm of his career. But, interestingly, that may have been the best thing that's happened for the Chargers. That was the day that the locker room realized how their leader was. They realized who the guy was that going to leave it all on the field for them, the guy they could follow into battle and trust to have their backs no matter how bad it gets.

In the NFL I think parody is at an all time high. I think every team is loaded with physical talent. I don't think there's a big gap from top to bottom in that area. So what are the components that make up the difference? I think it comes down to 3 main things:

1. Leadership
2. Chemistry
3. Coaching

And I'm not sure about that order. But the point is, your QB is the guy who you want to be that leader. That's why the QB can be one of the slowest, least athletic guys on the football field, and still be your best player. Because they're the guy that everyone is looking to for setting the tone.

When Rivers limped out on the field that day while Tomlinson sat bundled up on the bench, the tone was set. They had a leader who would not leave them through thick and thin. A guy who would leave it all on the field for them. And he has stepped up and taken the reigns of that offense ever since, and the Chargers, not coincidentally, haven't looked back. They have swagger, chemistry, talent. They are the hottest, most complete team in the NFL, and I can't see them struggling with the Jets this week.

Like I said last week, the Jets have a great, GREAT foundation for the future. I just don't think they're there yet.

Chargers 31-14

Did you notice I picked all the teams whose nicknames began with C? That's because C is for Cookie. I don't think that was an accident. I think I subliminally really wanted to find a way to work this in.

Mission accomplished.

'09-'10 NFL Playoff Preview

It's Thursday, January 7th. I got out of work early today. The BCS National Title game is tonight, the NFL Playoffs start this weekend, I'm fresh off taking in awesome game between the Miami Wade's and the Boston Celtics last night, Roberto Alomar isn't a Hall of Famer, Mayweather is afraid to fight Pacquiao, and Gilbert Arenas thinks gunplay is funny. I suppose it's about time for my holiday blogging hiatus to come to an end!

There are so many things to talk about right now, but for today I'm going to focus on the NFL. (And for-- never-- I'm going to focus on Roberto Alomar, sorry that's just what you get with me)

Mostly out of regret of a blog I intended to be my last blog before my holiday hiatus, but instead failed to write.

Over Thanksgiving Break I got in a discussion with my brother where I insisted that there were 3 teams in the NFL (Saints, Vikings, Colts), who were a combined 32-1 at the time, that would not win the Super Bowl because they play what I like to call "Regular Season Football".

In other words, they're soft.

The main focus point of our discussion was the Vikings who, at the time, looked like the most complete team in football. My feeling was that Brett Favre ruined them by changing their identity from the things they did well last year (defense, power running, ball control, clock management, GIVING THE BEST PLAYER THE BALL), to a gun slinging, fast break style football team that is well suited for "Regular Season Football" (RSF), but not so well suited for "Second Season Football" (SSF) (Dec-Feb).


Since that discussion with my brother, (which I finished by saying, "We'll see what happens when December starts"), those 3 teams have gone a combined 7-8. Yes the Saints sat their starters in the last game of the season and the Colts infamously sat theirs in the second to last game, (not so much the last game until they were already in a sizable deficit), but there's no denying that the SSF has not agreed with those teams the same way the RSF did.

(Admittedly, this applies mostly to the Saints and Vikings, not just because of their December records, but mostly because they just haven't looked good. The Colts have looked a little better, but still not like Super Bowl Champs since the start of December.)

However, I did NOT write this article and it has inspired me to make sure I don't drop the ball even more for my favorite time of year...

The NFL Playoffs!

(First... I'm taking Alabama solidly over Texas tonight. I'm thinking double digits. McElroy will need to play really well and Julio Jones will be the x-factor. That Crimson Tide defense will be more physical and dominant than anything Texas has faced other than Ndamukong Suh himself, only this time they won't have the benefit of not having to worry about the offense on the other side.

Is Nick Saban the most overlooked Head Coach in College Football?)

Ok, now let's get to the bracket:



New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
4:30pm NBC

At first glance this game looks tough. Everyone is talking about the regular season finale in which the Jets won 3483-0 and how the Jets might have the best defense in the league and how they run the ball as well as anyone in the league and their coach is on Sportscenter saying they should be favored to win the Super Bowl because of those things.

Almost had me.

I'm confidently taking the Bengals in what I think has the potential to turn into a bit of a rout.

A couple weeks ago I was compiling my (controversial) Power Rankings for the very tight AFC, and it looked like this:

1. Chargers (the only team that I think has separated itself from the pack in the AFC)
2. Bengals
3. Patriots
4. Steelers (IF getting Polamalu back in time for the playoffs... moot point now)
5. Colts
6a. Ravens
6b. Titans
8. Broncos (with healthy Brandon Marshall)
9. Jets

What does that list tell you? Not much. But it does tell you that I'm pretty high on the Bengals. Not sure how high just yet, but I believe they're for real.

They have an excellent QB, a loaded defense that has been playing like a solid unit all season, a running game that just won't quit (TWO 100 yard rushing games against the Ravens for Benson this year), and an excellent WR corps. They're complete, they play as a unit, they're deep, they have great chemistry top to bottom, they believe in each other, they play with a chip on their shoulder, they have swagger, I love everything about this team coming in and think they will really turn some heads.

The Jets, conversely, have 2 impressive wins against the Colts backups (oh wait, that game was actually kind of close) and the Bengals 3rd stringers IN New York, since losing a must win game AT HOME to the walking dead Atlanta Falcons (which SHOULD have eliminated them from the playoffs if not for back to back games against backups).

Basically, I'm not impressed with the Jets at all. I think they've got a great foundation for next year. They focus on the important elements of the game (defense, power running, ball control) and do them well a lot of the time under a first year coach. I think next year they will give my Pats a scare.

This year? It's over.

So bet on the Jets because this seems way too easy to me.



Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Saturday 8:00pm NBC

I'm a sucker for Donovan McNabb. I think he's one of the most underrated QB's in the league. He's got his best cast of weapons on offense since the T.O. days. I would pick them over half the teams in the playoffs. However...

I'm going with Romo.

Do I take Romo over McNabb? I'm not sure. But, he's at least good enough to play him evenly. Romo has quite possibly played the QB position better than ANYONE in football over the month of December. He's clicking perfectly with Miles Austin and Jason Witten. As Skip Bayless (my hero) keeps pointing out, he has 11 TD's to 2 (tipped) interceptions in December. And he's got some of the best pocket presence in the league.

(Side-note: Pocket presence is the most underrated trait in QB play. This is what I've always loved about Brady, who has the best PP of all time, easily his best skill, and it's what I continue to believe in about Romo. When a guy can feel comfortable in the pocket, feel what's coming around him without having to stare at the pressure, and know when it's time to move or unload the ball, it drastically improves his ability to avoid mistakes, protect the ball, and check down his receivers. Romo has had a handful of things to work on throughout his short career, but this one trait has remained constant and is the reason that I've always felt he will make it as a successful starting QB.)

I have the QB play about even. As for weapons, DeSean Jackson is the single most explosive player on the field.

However, I think that's about where it ends for the Eagles.

(If Brian Westbrook were still alive this would look a lot different, but since he's not, the matchups seems to go heavily in Dallas' favor from here on out.)

Miles Austin is just a tick below DeSean Jackson and I'll take Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton over Brent Celek and Jeremy Maclin. I'll take the Cowboys healthy offensive line of the Eagles banged up bigs, and I'll take those 3 excellent Cowboys running backs, headed by Marion "the Barbian" Barber (top 5 NFL RB when healthy) over rookie LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook's concussed corpse, in a landslide.

These are both explosive offenses and you could argue that the Eagles is the better offense. Although I personally would take the 'Boys, that argument wouldn't be crazy to me. However, the defensive side of the ball isn't even close. Dallas has a pass rush that is finally firing on all cylinders after a slow start and is the best all around defensive team in the NFC. This is where the game will be won.

I'm taking Dallas for the 3 game season sweep of the Eagles.



Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Sunday 1:00pm CBS

I'm biased. You know it. I know it. Patriots win. Now let's talk about it.

I love the Ravens. They're big 'dogs in this game in my mind, but they do have a good shot to pull the upset. They have an excellent running game and a good passing game.

The defense is good, but not what it used to be. Which brings me to an interesting point. A humanizing point I guess. Watching Ray Lewis fade away is difficult to watch. He's still awesome, but he used to be awesome. I think it's easy to look at him now and say, 'Wow he's still really good, he barely even looks like he's lost a step', and completely forget what this guy used to be. He's still one of the top LB's in the league, but this man is part of a very short

list of players (LT, Primetime, Lott) I've ever seen who could take over an entire game by himself. This version of Ray Lewis that we have now is not that same guy. This one is good, maybe even great. But that guy was something a little better than "great", as we often use that word in sports. And that's not the same guy who will be linebacking the Ravens defense this weekend.

So yes, I think the Ravens are dangerous, but I don't know that they have any of that old magic left in the tank. Ray Lewis of 2002 isn't walking through that door, and the 2009 version isn't going to be enough to stop Tom Brady, Randy Moss aaaand...

Julian Edelman!!!

That's right, I'm not scared one bit by the loss of Wes Welker. When we first got Moss my instant analysis was that Welker would benefit greatly and would look like Brady's favorite target because of two things:

1. The way Brady likes to quick strike to small, quick WR's.

2. The Randy Moss Factor, which causes defensive secondaries to back up and creates all kinds of room to work underneath. Perfectly suited for little, quick guys who are already good at getting open underneath.

Notice that neither of those things were "Wes Welker is great". Because as much as I love Wes Welker, and I do love Wes Welker, he's just not as good as his stats would indicate. He is a product of the system. He's short, tough, quick. He's the proto-type slot reciever, but there are tons like him. And Edelman (a 6th round rookie QB) is poised to prove just that. In fact, Edelman may be even better. As a former college QB, there's no doubt about his grasp of the offense and the way he sees the field, he has even better moves after the catch, and he's a tick bigger. As for top speed it looks like about a wash, although I wouldn't be surprised if Edelman has that edge as well. Overall, I'm not concerned about the loss of Welker at all, as long as Moss and Edelman stay healthy.

Where the Welker loss hurts us is depth, not in top performance.

So since this game seems like a cake walk for the Patriots to me (not sure the final score will indicate that, but I have little doubt about the outcome), what can we expect after the first round?

The Pats play the Chargers no matter what. I think the Pats have a legitimate shot to be the best team in the league. They are playing their best ball of the year right now, and the biggest thing is they're getting healthy for the first time all year. Everyone on D is back. Mayo is as healthy as he's been since Week 1, the poo-poo platter of corners are all healthy as well as our safeties (who I like), and Vince Wilfork AND Ty Warren were both full participants again in practice today. Our Offensive Line is the healthiest it's been all year, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris are just coming back, I've already talked about the Edelman/Welker situation, and Brady looks about as good as he has at any point this year (possible cracked ribs and broken finger on throwing hand aside... that's a reasonable aside right?). Once again the Pats are in their best shape just in time for when it matters, and I would be very afraid if I were the San Diego Chargers.



Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday 4:40pm FOX

Hands down the toughest first round game for me. At the beginning of the year I was huge on Green Bay. I had them as one of my favorites in a 4 way race for the NFC Championship in the pre-season (Giants, Packers, Vikings, Eagles). It's difficult for me to ever stray completely from a team I started off really high on, even if Aaron Rodgers has the worst pocket presence I've ever seen from a guy with quite possibly zero other weaknesses as a QB. (And even if I had them is the same group as the Giants)

I've also never been big on Kurt Warner. In fact I've always been annoyed by Kurt because he's so overrated, and I therefore root against him for the sake of justice.

However, I watched that Sunday night beatdown they put on Brett Favre and the Vikings on the first Sunday in December and said to myself, 'That's a Championship team'.

Is that one dominant performance enough of a sign of life for me to completely buy into the Cardinals?

No.

I know the Packers don't exactly have the most impressive "signature wins" leading up to the playoffs, but I just like an awful lot about this team. They're so balanced.

Defensively they have the 2nd fewest yards allowed and the 7th fewest points. They have a stellar secondary (Charles Woodson is a Defensive POY candidate playing opposite Al Harris and both safeties are awesome) and a very good front 7.


(My only concern would be if Charles Woodson is hampered by that shoulder injury from last week)



Offensively they have it all. Decent running game that seems to get better as the weather gets worse, tons of weapons for Rodgers (Jennings, Driver, JJones, Jordi Nelson, Lee), and Rodgers himself. And while Rodgers does have a tremendous propensity to take bad sacks, it's not so bad that I wouldn't still take him over Warner.

This is the game I will be the most excited to watch, from a curiosity standpoint. I could see either of these teams catching fire and cruising all the way to the Super Bowl. Easily. The Cardinals also have a defense that is capable of doing everything and really catching fire (although I think it's safe to expect to see D. Rogers-Cromartie getting burned at least once, probably twice, pretty badly). Not quite as good a secondary, but a much better defensive line and overall front 7 (which scares me as someone about to pick the Packers, who are led by a QB who holds the ball too long). And we already know how explosive the Cards offense can be when healthy and clicking.

However, with Boldin potentially hobbled by an ankle injury (which it looks like he will be, by the way), I'm sticking with the Packers like 31-23ish. Which is my token, "I'm not really sure what to expect", score.



After the first round:

Just to throw some stuff out there, (I'll get into more detail as the Playoffs go on).

I'm picking the Cowboys to win the NFC Championship game over the Packers.

I'm picking the Patriots to win the AFC over the Bengals.

Patriots over 'Boys in the Super Bowl.

I have no idea what I'm talking about, but there it is. That's my gut going into it, and I will admit there is a lot of bias involved (see... I admit it when it's true). If there were no bias I would easily have San Diego winning it all, but I can't get away from the Pats this year. I believe in Brady too much and it seems like a pick I would make without bias, but we'll never know. I will, of course, let you know if there's a moment that I'm sure, bias aside, but we're nowhere near there yet.

Of course if anything happens to this guy ----->



... all bets are off.


And now I need to go watch the SEC represent against the best team from a much inferior conference, once again.