The year I start this blog...
2-8
Of course, that figures. Thank the Lord I started a blog instead of going to Vegas.
I would like to send “Thank You's” to Karlos Dansby, Bill Belichick's ego, Adrian Peterson's hands, Shayne Graham's playoff kicking ability, Nate Kaeding's playoff kicking ability, Jay Feely's playoff choking--
Actually-- what I’m getting at is a big, fat “Thank You” to all field goal kickers for actually transforming themselves into the most important position in football due to the fact that apparently there is only about 3 or 4 of them on the entire planet who can both; kick field goals AND perform under pressure.
I touched on this issue briefly in my Round 2 Preview (at the bottom of the Cowboys-Vikings preview, right before picking the Cowboys because of the Favre Factor. I hate my life). I had no idea that these playoffs would push me completely and utterly over the edge. I submit my official idea:
No more field goals in pro football.
No, seriously!
Stop laughing!
Hear me out. I KNOWWWW it will never happen. But, that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t! Bear with me. What do field goals bring to the table? Seriously? I’m a huge fan of playing smashmouth, field position football. Take the points. Make an opponent earn everything they get. Always prolong the game. All that good stuff. And I know that, as currently constructed, field goal kicking is a large part of that.But let’s think about what the game would be like if there were no Field Goal option on 4th down.
Every team views a new set of downs as 3 plays to pick up a first down. Some of the gutsier head coaches (Bill Belichick, Jack Del Rio, Peyton Manning) have started to be a little more liberal with their definitions of “4 down territory”, but the majority of the time a team is expected to run 3 plays and get the 1st or “3 and out”. This might shock some of you, but I’m not going to go overboard getting into the statistics that tell us things like; you have a 50/50 chance of converting 4th and short (I’m starting to get the hang of this being a blog, not a column, besides there are plenty of stat geeks who have blogs and websites designated to showing us those stats). Instead, just think about what the game would look like if teams went into every 1st down with the thought process that we either use all 4 plays to get the 1st, or punt. Are you telling me offenses wouldn’t be opened up a little? Teams wouldn’t start picking up that first down a little more?
It would depend on the individual coach and the team he has to work with, but I’m assuming most teams would view the opponents 40-25 yard lines as the definitive “4 down territory” at any point in the game. With that line being moved back further and further depending on how big of a deficit they are playing with and how late in the game they are. Of course, teams with the Brady/Manning/Breeses of the world would be going for it at the 50 on an almost regular basis.
Ok so maybe this is starting to sound exciting, but why the change? You’re wondering what’s wrong with the way it is now. The way it’s always been. Why screw with tradition?
Well I know any kickers out there reading this aren’t going to like what I have to say, but I’m just being honest. I love the kickers. Great guys. Every kicker I’ve ever played with was a really fun guy to be around. They’re always good for moral support, which makes perfect sense because who understands the feeling of failure more than a kicker. They’re always good for remembering the little things on away games because, well, they have so much free time while everyone else is lifting weights and practicing. Kickers are awesome.
But they aren’t football players. They don’t go out and bleed and claw and fight side by side with 10 other guys throughout the game. They don’t have to understand what all those teammates are doing and work together to keep the machine running. They sit around and wait for their 1-6 plays a game. And what are those plays like? Oh, only the biggest plays of the game. And unlike every other play in football, these plays depend almost entirely on one guy… the kicker.
(Yes the holder and long snapper, otherwise useless players, are big parts of a FG as well. But the holder is usually either the punter, or any actual player like a QB. And the long snapper is used on both punts and FG’s, however his margin for error is much greater in the punting game than his tiny margin for error in the FG game, thus greatly reducing the risk of the outcome of a game being greatly affected by a player who barely plays (the punter is standing instead of crouching, and he can move around and adjust to the catch, probably 10 times the target for the snap)
In these playoff games we saw a ridiculous amount of games be decided, or greatly swung, by guys who didn’t even break a sweat or need showers after the battle. In round one we saw career 85% kicker (Shayne Graham) who was 1 for 1 in his only previous playoff game and had only missed 5 kicks all season go 0-2 on chippies that drastically changed the momentum and game-plan of the game and basically cost a team (Bengals), who otherwise had arguably outplayed their opponent (Jets), the win. In the same round we see a team get the league leader in FG% (Neil Rackers) for the regular season into position to hit a game winner that he misses brutally (was there any doubt he was going to miss that kick?), in OT the Packers win the coin toss and if it’s not for a ridiculous turn of events and funny bounces on one fateful second down play, Green Bay probably would have won that game. A game that Arizona had already earned a win in regulation by getting their guy into range. (And no you cannot play the, “yeah well that’s their fault if they know he’s not clutch” card on Rackers because it doesn’t apply to Graham or any of the other guys here except Kaeding, who has his own set of circumstances. Speaking of Kaeding...)
In Round 2 we see Rackers go 0 for 1 in the Cardinals loss, but the real story was clearly Nate Keading redefining the definition of the word “choke” as it applies to sports. Kaeding is a career 87% kicker who had missed all of 3 kicks this season en route to hitting 92%. He was named to the Pro Bowl, being the top kicker in the AFC. He was drafted – gulp – as the 2nd pick in the 3rd round of the ’04 draft by San Diego. He’s supposed to be money!!! However, the guy simply cannot kick under playoff pressure. It’s as simple as that. Of course, the poor Chargers had no way of knowing this until he proved it this year. Kickers don’t get many opportunities to make plays. They don’t get to work through this stuff. They either have it, or they don’t. In Kaeding’s case, he doesn’t. But we needed this 0-3 performance to prove it to us. Costing San Diego the win. Back to back weeks the Jets get wins against teams who were brutally let down by their kickers. 0-5 combined. A total of 5 plays. 2 guys who played a total of 5 combined plays (not counting extra points) determined, or at least greatly affected the outcome of 2 straight games, and the entire landscape of this year’s playoffs.
We also saw Jay Feely, a guy who is generally above average under pressure in my opinion; miss a crucial kick for the Jets against the Colts. And Garrett Hartley (who finished the season 17 spots behind Kaeding and 21 behind Rackers in FG% this season) nail a game winner for the Saints.
Overall FG kickers were just above 50% during the playoffs this year. Considering that 80% ranks you around 25th in the regular season, this is an unbelievable number.
So with so many games and outcomes being so greatly affected by these scrawny guys who can’t run, tackle or block, I can’t help but wonder—no actually—cry out, that the best teams are not always winning! More to the point, the teams PLAYING the best on the given day are not winning!I know you can sit back and say, “Well that’s why they play the game”, and all that stuff. But wouldn’t it be cool if the team that plays the best, executes the best, and IS the best on game day, actually won!? Instead of having that win denied them by a guy who doesn’t even play.
So back to the idea: I submit that field goal kicking has inepted itself into the role of “Most Important Position” in football. I submit that these guys are not accurate indicators of the team and that there is no way for a team to know exactly what they have in a kicker because of the small sample’s of his performance. I submit that we abolish field goal kicking and force a team to score actual touchdowns. Actually score your own points to win.
It still comes down to field position, tight defense, efficient and/or high powered offense. All those things are just as much in play as before. No more, no less really. Defensive struggles that were once decided by a FG or two, are now decided by which team gets into the end zone. Is that so much different? Offensive shootouts that are decided (one way or another) by a Neil Rackers-esque field goal would now need to be decided by which offense is explosive enough to score the last touchdown. Instead of getting into range and hoping their guy does his job and then when he doesn’t the other team gets in range and wouldn’t you know… their guy hits it. That’s a total crapshoot. The touchdown is legit. You can’t argue with a touchdown.
Finishing touches on the proposal: For extra points there are several ways to handle it. Kickers are paid relatively nothing and I would have no problem with keeping them on the roster with the sole job of kicking extra points. However, I would RATHER see a more creative and exciting system put in place.
The first (less exciting) option: Take the ball on the 1 for 1 point or the 2 or 5 for 2 points.
The second (more exciting) option: An expansion on the first option. Take the ball on the 1 for 1, or take the ball on any yard line you want in increments of 5 and going up 1 point for each increment. So the 20 would be worth 5 points! You think that’s too much? I say if a team is ballsy enough to say, “Man up, we’re taking one shot from the 20, stop us!”, and then gets it done! They deserve the points! That’s the whole idea! We can’t eliminate one play devastation. Hail Mary’s, Hook and Ladders, turnovers or kicks returned for game winning touchdowns, these are all things that make football great. They’re exciting. Sure they can be fluky, but that’s what makes sports great isn’t it? And if the game is going to end on a fluky, sudden death type of play, I want it to be made by the actual players. I want it to be our offense vs. your defense. Not our scrawny guy who hasn’t played in the actual game, going out against basically only himself since it’s almost impossible to block a kick. That just doesn’t feel right. I say put the game in the hands of the actual players.
------------------------------------------------
Colts vs. Saints
Super Bowl
I’m sorry, but I have to make a pick. I should probably consider ceasing to pick the outcomes of games in the future. These playoffs may have scarred me for life. But, I need to finish it out. I’m not a quitter.
I’m not going to go super far into analyzing this game. I’ve already written too much in this entry as it is (so much for grasping the blog vs. column concept… maybe next time).
If I were to really delve into this game, given the stuff I’ve already written about in this space it would only make sense that I explore it from the “What affect do the various possible outcomes have on Peyton Manning’s legacy” angle. I would love to delve into that, and honestly I will after the game. I will acknowledge that he is the best QB in the game right now. And Brees is possibly second. And this game will either confirm or deny that. Brady simply did not recover this year, and although I feel that Belichick is more to blame than Brady himself for not hiring an offense coordinator to help Brady out (no, that QB coach we have is NOT an offensive coordinator), you still can’t look at Brady’s season, and particularly the playoff game without admitting that he's not the same Tom Brady. Very sad. Come ooooooon 2010 season!
So I also have to acknowledge that should Peyton win, and more importantly, play well, he could very well enter the hallowed Montana/Brady zone among the “GreatEST QB’s of all-time”. I’m not saying he WILL be there. I’m saying it’s possible and I will need to analyze how I feel about all of that at a later time.
I don’t want to go there. I want the old Peyton back. I want 4-5 interceptions tomorrow night, with a couple of them being just brutal. This new Peyton is wearing me out. On top of all the parody/not parody crap we have going on the NFL making it impossible to figure things out, we now have a clutch, assassin-like Peyton Manning?!?!?! Sca-REWWW that! I’m all set.
Conversely, I just love Drew Brees. I’ve always been a fan, and the more I see of him the more I love him. He seems like the ultimate teammate. Hands down. I actually think, from my couch at home, he looks like the greatest teammate we may have ever seen at the QB position. I’ve never seen a guy carry so much good natured influence and motivation for an entire 53-man roster. Offense, defense, special teams. Drew looks and acts and fits in as if he plays everywhere. And the guys have that respect for him. Not just respect, but also camaraderie. They all seem to genuinely love him and want to run through walls for him. With Peyton, there's the respect, but I don’t see a love. He barks at them when things don’t go well. He takes all the credit when things do go well. Maybe the best way to describe it is a healthy fear. They respect him without a doubt. And they certainly respect what he can do for them and where he can take them. But, do they love him? From my couch, it doesn’t look anything like what has been going on in New Orleans with Brees the past few years, or even like when he was in San Diego. I love this guy and would love to see him lead them and the Katrina-stricken city of New Orleans and the sad, sad franchise of the Saints to a Super Bowl win.
However, the Colts have Peyton Manning. He's the king of the hill right now. If he does what he does, they’re simply the best team this year. I didn’t think they would suddenly translate that to post-season football, but they have. I expect an absolute shootout between two extremely similar teams. I expect to be crushed by a Super Bowl featuring minimal defense. And I expect Peyton Manning to finally earn a Super Bowl ring.
Colts 41-34
p.s. You can’t accuse me of reverse jinxing here because I picked the Colts over the smashmouth Ravens in the 2nd Round and they came through. And then when I did fall for the smashmouth team (inevitable that I would take either the Jets or Ravens in back to back weeks against a Peyton Manning, finesse offense), I was wrong. So my picks have proven to be useless against the Colts this season. Maybe THEY, and not the Saints, are truly the Team of Destiny? I mean, they seem to be the only team immune to the Rocketship Curse. So no, there’s no reverse jinxing going on here.
No way would I try that.
Right?
No comments:
Post a Comment