So without further ado, here are my thoughts about the NFL's annual November ratings baby, Pats vs. Colts, 2009. One of the better versions of this regular classic:
I live in Massachusetts. I can't turn anywhere today without hearing the same question. "What do you think of the call?"
My answer?
Which call?
I loved the call to go for it and was adamant that that was our only option at the time. I hated the call to not escort the Colts into the end zone on the very next play after we didn't get the 1st down (even though we actually did, as those of us with DVR know, oh well).
It's very simple. I said before the game that I would bet my life on Peyton to win a game if it's in his hands with the game on the line now. The choking Peyton is dead since he got that SB handed to him. It's inexplicable how winning a SB when playing like pure deuce could've had that kind of psychological effect on him, but he is an absolutely different player the last 2 years than he was the rest of his life. (I could elaborate more, of course, but I won't)
So here's the information I have to look at when making that decision:
1. I would bet my life on him scoring there. (subjective)
2. My starting CBs are Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite (objective... and horrifying)
3. 2 of the Colts 3 4th qtr drives went like this; 79 yards, ended in a TD, averaged 2 minutes. This is one of the fastest striking offenses we've seen since us in '07. The one they didn't score was a miscommunication on 1st down between Wayne and Peyton that resulted in a gift wrapped INT. Our D DID NOT stop them, we got lucky. Those two are always on the same page, there's no way that's happening again.
Clearly, if I punt him the ball with 2 mins on the clock AND a timeout, they would have to go about 60-70 yards BEST case scenario, worst is they have less to go with a good return. To me, punting means that I'm rolling the dice on what I feel is about a 20-30% chance of stopping Peyton, at best. Basically I'm probably putting my team in position to lose, but it's the fundamental play so the media won't kill me for it.
Keep in mind I've said all season that if my life was on the line, I would go with Peyton in that situation every time. I'm normally all about the fundamentals, as everyone who knows me knows. And it's fundamental to punt it there. But for Peyton and Tom, I make an exception. Last night, Peyton was on the other side.
My other option, (the only option in my opinion, as I said aloud at the time so I'm not just being a monday morning QB), was to go for it. Tom converts that 63.4% of the time, (awesome stat job by ESPN). If we get it, we win. Simple. If we DON'T get it, (and this is where Bill BLEW the game), you obviously let them score on the very first play and then Tom gets the ball back with about 1:56 (1:50 after kickoff) to get us about 50 yards into FG range. Again, worst case scenario. Less yards with a good kick return.
I even had the defense picked out in my head that I would run, although I didn't assume this from Bill. I was anxious to see what his "Ole!" defense looked like, (yes that is the name of a defensive package that would be in my playbook if I was a coach.. let's go to the film)
4 man rush, (this prevents the QB from scrambling and killing time or picking up yards that don't end in the end zone), man coverage on all eligible recievers, all leftover defenders (safeties or LBs) are cheating into the flats and preparing to cheat and take away all underneath patterns. ZERO over the top help. Everyone is instructed to do something that every DB will love to hear, cheat up and jump every move and go all out for the INT and UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES make a tackle. Get a pick, or get smoked for a TD. Simple.
So since they came out throwing on first down, (a curl pattern to Reggie Wayne), one of two things would've happened;
1. Peyton reads the D properly, which would've been impressive, and throws a TD. Which is wide open
2. Peyton doesn't read it, sticks with the "safe" play and throws the curl which 2 defenders are cheating on harder than Bill Clinton on a stranded island with the freakin Pussycat Dolls.
Worst case scenario the Colts score to take a 1 point lead with 1:56 left on the clock. Brady gets on the field with about 1:50 and no more than 50 yards to go to get in FG range.
If I asked you on sunday afternoon, would you rather:
A. Be down 1 with the ball in Tom's hands and 1:50 on the clock.or
B. Be up 4 with the ball in Peyton's hands with 2 mins on the clock and Colts have a timeout and we have none?
Which one do you choose? Basically whatever you choose answers how you feel that situation should've been handled. If you choose A, then you go for it on fourth down (which it should be pointed out gives you BETTER odds than option A itself because we also had a chance to convert the 4th!!! Nevermind that 1:50 scenario!)
If you choose B then you punt.
I sure as hell wouldn't have chosen B before the game, and I didn't choose B after we didn't get the 3rd down.
As a coach I want the ball in the hands of MY guy, (the best QB ever), with the game on the line instead of the hands of THEIR guy, (also a top 10 all time QB playing at top 3 level right now).
So I loved the 4th down call.
Hated the fact that he made that call for all the wrong reasons. Easily the worst botch of Bill's career.
Good words - micah. My opinion - I liked the call. I think more teams should go for it on 4th all the time. I would have gone farther down the field and been more aggressive, but if he makes it he's a hero, misses and he's the goat. Last night when I watched I did not think of the Ole defense. I agree that would have been the smart move.
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